Colorado Rockies Season Preview
The Colorado Rockies have sadly begun to stand alone at the bottom of baseball’s totem pole at the present moment. It’s not only due to their lack of success, but also for their often confounding and nondirectional decision-making as a franchise.
In a division that features the defending National League champs, the consensus World Series favorites, and two other formidable ballclubs, the Rockies stick out in the potent NL West. They haven’t finished above .500 since 2018, with nearly an entire different roster, when they were swept in the Division Series. There are some things to watch, as there are with any team, but brighter days are probably well beyond the horizon for the black and purple.
Colorado Rockies
2023 record: 59-109 (5th, NL West)
2024 FanGraphs projection: 64-98 (5th, NL West)
I’ve always had a soft spot for the Rockies, so we’ll start with the (perhaps lone) bright spot for this squad in 2024. Nolan Jones came up with Cleveland in 2022, and his huge raw power and strikeout issues were both evident in what was a largely average first cup of coffee in the big leagues. After being traded to Colorado in the offseason for fellow prospect Juan Brito, Jones joined the big-league club in Denver at the end of May, and quickly asserted himself as their best young player.
In 106 games (424 PA), the former second-round pick boasted a 135 wRC+ with 3.7 fWAR, swatting 20 homers and stealing 20 bags to go along with them. Jones had a decent prospect profile in the past, but he exceeded expectations by quite a bit in 2023.
Jones was the first Rockies player since 2017 to post a 135 wRC+ or better in at least 400 plate appearances, and entering his age-26 season, his trajectory looks like a very good one for the otherwise struggling franchise.
That can be a segue into a group of aging players on this roster that, unlike Jones, have maybe surpassed the point of having a surplus of hope. Charlie Blackmon is going to turn 38 in July, and has just a 95 wRC+ over his last four seasons. He is a long way from the offensive force that he was seven of eight years ago, when he was a perennial All-Star and borderline MVP candidate. And this points to a trend on this roster. Kris Bryant won an MVP... eight years ago in Chicago, and was brutal in his half-season in 2023 (-1.2 fWAR tied for eighth-worst in baseball); it remains confounding that Colorado put money down to trade away Nolan Arenado, and then promptly signed a worse overall player, Bryant, to a megadeal. Hope fades by the year with former top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who has yet to be an above-average big league bat.
Just three Rockies batters have a ZiPS projected wRC+ marks of 100 or better: Jones, Bryant (73 last season), and Sean Bouchard who had a nice debut in 21 games last year. It’s an aging lineup, with a ceiling not much better than “fine.” And as much as I don’t like being negative about a team’s potential, the pitching doesn’t feature a much sunnier outlook.
Kyle Freeland finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting, all the way back in 2018. He has not reached near those heights since, managing to be a mostly league-average run-preventer when adjusting for Coors Field (99 ERA+). He leads a pitching staff that ZiPS does not project will feature a single pitcher with better than a 4.50 ERA, and only four below 5.00 (all in the bullpen). Granted, they don’t pitch in the friendliest environment, but still.
They’ll be without their usual rotation stalwart in Germán Márquez, who had Tommy John surgery in 2023, for a good portion of this season. They also have a pair of newcomers in the rotation with Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson. Quantrill was acquired via trade with Cleveland, where he had a few very nice seasons, but he is projected to have a rough transition into Coors (5.06 FIP). Hudson will likely have to earn a rotation spot after an underwhelming season in 2023 with the Cardinals.
The bullpen is a similarly uninspiring story. The Rockies will be without Daniel Bard who had knee surgery last month, so the ‘pen will likely be anchored by Justin Lawrence, who does flash some impressive stuff. In all, pitching will likely never be a total strength of this franchise-at-high-altitude, but this is a particularly worrisome group, without some of their better arms, and with a general lack of strikeout capability.
The Rockies play in one of the tougher divisions in baseball. It would be unforgiving for any team, and it’s a death knell for one as lost as Colorado. They’re projected to drop close to 100 games, while the rest of the NL West is at least .500 or better, which includes the reigning pennant-winning Diamondbacks, and the juggernaut Dodgers. Their playoff odds are about as close to zero as they can be, and things aren’t exactly looking up. I always root for the Rockies, in a distant way, but given their current situation and competition, there isn’t a whole lot to cheer about.
