Coral-Eclipse: how Emily Upjohn and Paddington measure up

Tom Thurgood looks at the four declarations and the anticipated match-up between Paddington and Emily Upjohn in the £750,000 Coral-Eclipse, the Group One highlight from Sandown Park this weekend. Enjoy every moment live on Racing TV!

After the withdrawal of Luxembourg and the more surprising omission of Anmaat at the declaration stage on Thursday morning, just four runners will head to post for Saturday's Coral-Eclipse at Sandown Park.

This is usually a select race and much-anticipated clash of the generations with only three double-figure fields this century - the race has seen a median of eight runners or a mean of 7.7 per year since 2000 - yet four runners would be the smallest number to go to post since at least 1997. There have been five renewals with just five runners in that time.

St Mark's Basilica beat three rivals and in fine style two years ago to somewhat mute pre-race noises about a lack of runners, while the anticipated match-up between Classic and Royal Ascot winner and sole three-year-old Paddington against high-class older rival Emily Upjohn this time is still a really exciting prospect.

Enjoy the Coral-Eclipse live with us this Saturday!

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the lack of runners most directly leads questions around the pace of the race. In the six races since 1997 with a maximum of five runners, three were ridden very forward (Pilsudski, Twice Over and Golden Horn) while the three ridden with more restraint were all trained by Aidan O'Brien (Hawk Wing, So You Think and St Mark's Basilica).

With no obvious forward goer, enterprising connections may try to seek an advantage - West Wind Blows may be best suited to trying to get into a rhythm in front, for example, then trying to beat classier horses in a three-furlong dash - but the lack of obvious pace is something to ponder at this point.

Here is our guide to the two main contenders who take up 90% of the early betting market.

PADDINGTON

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Approximate odds: 5-4

Momentum is building behind the sole three-year-old in the field with the Irish challenger now the clear favourite from Emily Upjohn.

Highly progressive this season, the Siyouni colt was only beaten on debut – and that first start a late one in early September last term – and is now 26lb better than his seasonal debut in the Madrid Handicap at Naas in late March if the handicapper’s assessment is taken at face value.

He had a good draw in what was probably a below-par Irish 2,000 Guineas but still won well despite not having the most compelling form claims going into that Classic, justifying strong market support and finishing strongly, and he similarly finished with plenty of running at Royal Ascot in the St James’s Palace Stakes, travelling well off a strong early pace and still looking like he had plenty left when well in front inside the final furlong.

It's feasible he has more to offer while this first attempt at 10 furlongs should be within his compass. Siyouni has a strike-rate of 13.7% over a mile with his progeny to race in Britain and Ireland and – while the sample size is half the size at around 300 runners – the stallion’s strike-rate jumps to 14.9% with such runners at 10 furlongs.

Paddington bids to become the first St James’s Palace winner to follow up in the Coral-Eclipse since Oratorio in 2005 and the last four runnings of this race to feature horses untried at the trip have all gone to runners stepping up in trip for the first time: Vadeni (2022), St Mark’s Basilica (2001), Ghaiyyath (2020) and Roaring Lion (2018).

There isn’t a huge amount in it, but generally three-year-olds hold the slight sway in the Coral-Eclipse in recent times. Since 1997, three-year-olds have won the race 39% of the time from 32% of the total runners, while older horses have won 61% of the time from 68% of the total runners.

EMILY UPJOHN

Trainer: John and Thady Gosden Approximate odds: 11-8

The four-year-old is lightly-raced with just seven career starts and, bar a somewhat bizarre running of the King George at Ascot last year, she could be coming into this with her sole defeat having been a desperately unlucky one in the Oaks last year when blowing the start and only just missing out by a head at the line.

She has done most of her racing at a mile and a half this filly hasplenty of boot and showcased that prime exhibit in rare style in the Coronation Cup last time on quick ground – she looked to tire in the closing stages after an explosive burst of speed at the top of the straight on her return to action – and she also showed loads of speed in the Oaks last term (finishing speed percentage an eye-watering 120%).

The drop back in trip is not a genuine concern here and she is bidding to follow the Ghaiyyath route of landing this after Coronation Cup success, while the Gosdens have a good record in this Group One feature. Nathaniel and Enable also stepped down in trip to win this race for Clarehaven Stables.

Emily Upjohn might be best served trying to draw the stamina out of Paddington given her main market rival is unproven at the trip, but this filly has often proven keen in her races and she has usually been ridden with restraint. A significant departure from those tactics now would have been a surprise, but the smaller declared field than expected raises greater possibility, while the absence of her customary hood here may suggest that connections may not ride her with the usual restraint.

Gosden has won the race four times this century and all of his mile-and-a-half horses that won this down in trip - Nathaniel, Enable and Golden Horn - were all prominently ridden at Sandown and upsides the leader by the end of ths back straight. Roaring Lion, stepping up from a mile, was the exception. Given the evidence of recent years it seems more entirely feaisble - if not more likely than not - that Emily Upjohn will be ridden forward.

What of the other two?

Two other Newmarket runners complement this year's field with globetrotter and top-level scorer Dubai Honour running for William Haggas and West Wind Blows taking part for Simon and Ed Crisford.

Dubai Honour is the elder statesman here as a five-year-old and gets his chance this time after being named a late non-runner in last year’s race and he seems to be arriving here in similarly decent form after landing a brace of Group One events Down Under before a respectable third in the QEII Cup in Hong Kong a few months ago.

Dubai Honour has taken an unconventional route to this race but there are similarities with former stablemate Addeybb, who was sent pot-hunting in Australia before coming into this race two years when second – though albeit no match – for winner St Mark’s Basilica.

Like Addeybb, a decent pace here would ideally suit him best and he is usually waited with - with similar comments applicable to West Wind Blows.

The four-year-old is adrift of these on form and has plenty to find, but he did post a career-best in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot last time and connections are hopeful of a decent run with Jamie Spencer deemed important to the chances of the four-year-old (horse and rider yet to win in two starts together but combined to good effect at Ascot last time).

West Wind Blows stayed on well over a mile and half last time in that Group Two and the drop in trip is the more obvious question mark here, one magnified by the possible lack of pace.

Big-race verdict

This is a fascinating one.

The pre-race confidence behind Paddington seems fairly significant with connections additionally not opting to run a pacemaker here. When Aidan O'Brien relies on a soltary runner in this race it's usually noteworthy - since 2000, nine sole Ballydoyle runners have rocked up here with five winning (+£21.17, 2.38 A/E). Those horses were Giants Causeway (8-1), Oratorio (12-1), Mount Nelson (7-2), So You Think (4-6) and St Mark's Basilica (Evs).

He is likely still improving, has the slight edge strictly on profile as a three-year-old and as a Ballydoyle runner stepping up in trip in this and the extra yardage - even if it might not prove a strongly-run 10 furlongs - could herald yet more to come.

I think we have a greater idea of how Paddington is likely to be positioned here, whereas it's more open to question with Emily Upjohn. If she settles in a forward position, her plenty pace could keep her out in front of Paddington and the colt might not be able to claw her back on the uphill climb for home if the filly has a cushion of a few lengths turning in. She's the one I'd look to side with here and will do so in the event she might hit 6-4 or 13-8 ahead of post time.