Declan Rix with four horses to follow at ParisLongchamp on Arc weekend!
At The Races pundit Declan Rix is back with his four horses to watch across this weekend's ParisLongchamp action, all exclusively live on Sky Sports Racing.
Emily Dickinson
1.33 ParisLongchamp, Saturday - Qatar Prix du Cadran (Group 1) - 2m4f
Just the six runners in this Group 1 in what, in truth, is a disappointing renewal, but we won't mind too much if EMILY DICKINSON can get her head in front.
The consistent and tough filly will have plenty on her plate in trying to turn away Trueshan, but you'd much prefer her lead into the race than the gelding's, who surely had a gruelling return last time out when winning the Doncaster Cup. To be fair, Trueshan impressed with his engine once more given how keen he was, but that form, in beating a handicapper in Sweet William isn't outstanding, and a quick return in a concern.
On the other hand, Emily Dickenson comes here fresh on the back of a 60-day break, although she did miss an intended engagement in the Irish St Leger over two weeks ago. Still, with Aidan O'Brien doing the training, that isn't much of a worry for this likeable and straight-forward filly who has run well fresh in the past.
A lack of pace is a small concern as she does stay well, but I'd argue it's an even bigger worry for Trueshan who can often over-race. With Frankie Dettori doing the steering, you'd back him to get it right in what looks an incredibly winnable Group 1.
Melo Melo
3.33 ParisLongchamp, Saturday - Qatar Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) - 14f
While the Cadran has a tactical look to it, the Prix de Royallieu has the makings of a proper test of stamina. With Library (1), Sumo Sam (7), La Mehana (9), Poptronic (10) and Thunder Roll (14) all declared, horses will need to travel and stay.
Step forward MELO MELO who comes here on the back of a big career best in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille 20 days ago, running the progressive and in-form Warm Heart to a neck, having got a bit of pace to run at on nice ground.
The daughter of Gleneagles should get a similar setup here while her draw in stall six looks perfect.
At a bigger price, despite a poorer draw in stall 12, Rue Boissonade will also be added on the back of a big career best behind Melo Melo in the Vermeille. That was her first start in 58 days, but as a big filly, I suspect she will take a step forward here in a race three-year-olds have won seven times in the last decade.
Ace Impact
3.05 ParisLongchamp, Sunday - Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) - 12f
Quickening ground conditions mean we will have a different-looking Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe this season, and not the usual quagmire that we have seen over the last four years. It's maybe no surprise older horses have won the last quartet of renewals, both mental and physical strength likely a help in bad autumn ground.
A much slicker surface brings in the three-year-olds this year, lead by impressive French Derby winner ACE IMPACT, who, for my money, as the market also suggests, is the most likely winner.
The son of Cracksman has been brilliant over 10f this season, especially the case in the Prix du Jockey Club where he combined speed and stamina to win in sensational fashion.
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He needs to prove he stays 12f, but the ground will help, while his pedigree also gives plenty of encouragement. More importantly however, the visuals of how strongly he hit the line at Chantilly two starts back are etched in my memory. Should he lose, I don't think it will be stamina that gets him beat.
Should the ground not be too quick, and genuinely have a bit of juice in it, Bay Bridge is a horse who offers a sound each-way alternative from a plumb draw in stall six.
Jannah Rose
3.50 ParisLongchamp, Sunday - Prix de l'Opera Longines (Group 1) - 10f
The Prix de l'Opera is yet another big race on Arc Weekend that has a tactical look to it, on paper at least. Both Blue Rose Cen and Lumiere Rock could dominate this race from the front, but the former looks short enough in the betting and the latter was overturned by JANNAH ROSE when they clashed in the Prix Alec Head 42 days ago.
This daughter of Frankel is blessed with plenty of pace, and could even be comfortable over a mile in truth, so a 10f sit-and-sprint-type contest on nice ground looks right up her street. She also comes in here fresher than plenty of her rivals who have had busy seasons.
Her draw in stall 12 is a negative, no doubt, but let's hope Christophe Soumillon can work his magic.
An each-way alternative is Stay Alert who at 25/1 is simply the wrong price. As a keen-goer the race doesn't set-up for her well, but her odds make up for that worry. The level of her unlucky Pretty Polly second and Yorkshire Oaks sixth (didn't stay) put her bang in the mix, and she is another who has had a light campaign.
