Division Winners: Odds On NFL Worst To First Bets
While the NFL will be here before we know it, it’s time to look at the division odds and see which teams have a chance of going worst to first. The worst to first bets are usually a good payout because it isn’t something that happens in every division all the time. The only team last year to pull it off was the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Looking at this year’s teams, some seem obvious that they won’t pull it off, but there are a couple that could. Let’s take a look at each division’s worst to first candidates, ranked from least likely to most likely.
Division Winners: Odds On NFL Worst To First Bets
8. Arizona Cardinals (+2500)
The Cardinals are rebuilding, whether they want to admit it or not. Kyler Murray likely won’t be ready for Week 1. Their best offensive player, DeAndre Hopkins, was recently cut. Meanwhile, they also have question marks at multiple positions. However, here’s what holds them back the most and lands them at the bottom of the worst to first bets. They’re in a very tough division.
The 49ers won last year with a record of 13-4. The Cardinals finished at 4-13, and with little turnover for the 49ers, the Cardinals would have to vastly improve to close that gap. Guess what? The Cardinals did not vastly improve. The Seahawks and Rams also stand in their way. I would stay away from these guys.
7. Washington Commanders (+1100)
If I had a lot of confidence in Sam Howell and his ability to make this team better than Taylor Heinicke had them, then the Commanders wouldn’t be at seven. But, obviously, the confidence isn’t there. Last year the Commanders finished 8-8-1, and Ron Rivera probably still thinks they’re eligible for last year’s playoffs. So I don’t think they’re an option for your worst to first bets.
Much like the Cardinals, this division is a tough one. The Eagles finished 14-3 last year, though their only loss with a healthy Jalen Hurts was to the Commanders.
The Cowboys finished 12-5, even though I do think they will take a step back this year. However, where they take a step back, I think the Giants take a step forward from their 9-7-1 record from last year. The Commanders have a lot of pieces in place, but they may be one elite quarterback away from being able to make up ground in this division.
6. Denver Broncos (+550)
Last year was our first year seeing Russell Wilson quarterback the Denver Broncos. It resulted in a less-than-inspiring performance week after week, where the Broncos finished 5-12. Now, the Broncos have made a trade to acquire Sean Payton, who had a lot of successful years in New Orleans. We’re about to see if that success was mainly due to Drew Brees or not. Russell Wilson should play better than last year, but that isn’t saying much.
No matter how good Sean Payton coaches or Russell Wilson plays, they would still need to win more games than the Kansas City Chiefs. That doesn’t seem likely with how the Chiefs have played the past couple of years. They’d also have to hold off the Los Angeles Chargers, another feat that wouldn’t be easy. Even with a big-name quarterback and coach, I don’t see the Broncos taking the division anytime soon. I don’t think they’re an option for your worst to first bets.
5. Cleveland Browns (+425)
The Cleveland Browns are a team that you may consider for your worst to first bets. It all depends on your faith in Deshaun Watson. They have a good defense as well as a really good run game. Their success will depend on whether Watson can get back to the quarterback form they traded for or if he is spent. Personally, I think he’s spent.
This division is always tough, and the teams play each other tough. First, the Bengals won last year with a 12-4 record. Then, the Ravens weren’t too far behind at 10-7. Then, the Steelers were 9-8, and finally, the Browns were 7-10. Keep in mind Watson didn’t come back until Week 11, and even then, he hadn’t had much time to build a rhythm with the receivers since he couldn’t be near the building with his suspension. However, this year will be different, as he’ll have plenty of time.
4. New York Jets (+280)
The Jets tried to make a splash this offseason in the long-drawn-out saga of trading for Aaron Rodgers. Instead, they gave up a second in this year’s draft and a second that could become a first in next year’s draft. But, of course, they wouldn’t have done this if they didn’t think it would help them bounce from the bottom to the top, making them an intriguing option when it comes to worst to first bets.
Their defense was really good last year, even though they finished with only a 7-10 record. Their run game is in good hands, whether it’s Breece Hall, Michael Carter, rookie Israel Abanikanda, or whoever else runs out of the backfield. Their receiving care has one of the better young receivers in Garrett Wilson, and they also brought in Allen Lazard to help out. Can Rodgers help them do better than the Buffalo Bills, though? I don’t think so. However, the Jets must think so.
3. Atlanta Falcons (+250)
So far, pretty much every team has a very tough path to go from worst to first. However, the Falcons differ when it comes to that. Last year, they finished 7-10, which was only one game behind the division winner Tampa Bay, who finished at 8-9. But, of course, that was a Tampa Bay team with Tom Brady, not Baker Mayfield. In addition, the Falcons have Carolina and New Orleans also standing in their way. The Panthers drafted Bryce Young in hopes he’ll turn their franchise around, and the Saints brought in Derek Carr.
The Falcons seem to be turning the keys over to Desmond Ridder, though I don’t know if it will matter. A team that runs the ball as often as the Falcons may not need much help from their quarterback.
However, they’ll get much help from rookie Bijan Robinson in running the ball. They also still have Tyler Allgeir, Caleb Huntley, and Cordarelle Patterson. This team will run the ball down the throats of their opponents, and it could help them jump from the bottom to the top. The Falcons aren’t a bad worst to first bet.
2. Houston Texans (+700)
Last year, the Jaguars went from worst to first in this division with a 9-8 record. The Titans finished at 7-10, the Colts at 4-12-1, and then the Texans at 3-13-1. The Texans went out and drafted CJ Stroud, before then also making a trade to draft Will Anderson. These two players alone could help flip the team. They added players all over, and their defense wasn’t all that bad last year, either.
Derek Stingley was a great rookie cornerback for them, who should have an even better year with Will Anderson pressuring the quarterback into bad throws. This team has seemingly improved at every position, making them a great candidate to take the division.
1. Chicago Bears (+400)
The Bears are at the top of my division worst to first bets. The defense should be improved with the addition of Edmunds and Edwards, plus help at cornerback. The offensive line should be better in the passing game. The run game was good last year, as the Bears led the league in rushing yards. A lot of this had to do with Justin Fields running around. This year he’ll have a true number-one wide receiver to throw to in D.J. Moore. All signs are pointing up for Chicago.
Not to mention, the quarterback that bullied them for years, Aaron Rodgers, is gone. The Lions scare me as a favorite. They were great as a dog, but as favorites, they seemed to choke. I also think the Vikings are due for some regression. Dalvin Cook may be out the door, and the defense could take a step back. The Bears could finally take back the division this year, which they haven’t won since 2018.
