Dolphins vs Commanders prediction, odds, line, start time: 2023 NFL picks, Week 13 best bets from proven model
The Miami Dolphins look to remain well ahead of the rest of the AFC East as they match up against the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins (8-3) enter off a 34-13 victory last Friday against the Jets, while the Commanders (4-8) fell to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving day, 45-10. Washington won the last regular season meeting between these teams in 2019, 17-16. Miami is 7-4 against the spread, while Washington is 5-6-1 ATS in 2023.
Kickoff from FedEx Field in Landover, Md. is set for 1 p.m. ET. Miami is a 9.5-point road favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Commanders odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under is 49.5. Before making any Commanders vs. Dolphins picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and is 22-8 straight-up the last two weeks.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Commanders and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 13 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Commanders vs. Dolphins:
- Commanders vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -9.5
- Commanders vs. Dolphins over/under: 49.5 points
- Commanders vs. Dolphins money line: Dolphins -452, Commanders +345
- Commanders vs. Dolphins picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Commanders vs. Dolphins live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Dolphins can cover
Very few teams have been able to slow down wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who leads the league in receiving with 1,324 yards on 88 receptions. Hill is among the favorites to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year, having also scored 10 touchdowns. In last week's romp over the Jets, the speedster caught nine passes for 102 yards and a touchdown.
Throwing Hill those passes has been MVP candidate Tua Tagovailoa, whose 3,177 yards passing and 22 touchdown passes rank among the top-five with NFL quarterbacks. He has thrown at least one touchdown pass in every game and has Miami in position to be the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging 430.5 yards per game and 30.8 points per game (second behind Dallas). Considering Washington gives up the third most passing yards per game (264.6), Tagovailoa could have a field day in Week 13. See which team to pick here.
Why the Commanders can cover
Though Washington's record may not reflect it, their offense has been successful this season led by second year quarterback Sam Howell. He leads the NFL in passing yards with 3,339, while throwing for 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. Despite his success through the air, Howell has taken an astounding 55 sacks, which has forced the Commanders into negative field position all too often.
Veteran wide receiver Terry McLaurin leads the team with 60 receptions for 694 yards despite scoring only two touchdowns. Running back Brian Robinson has rushed for 611 yards and five scores while catching 29 passes for 326 yards and three touchdowns. In a game which likely will produce some points, Washington's offense will have to be efficient to keep up with the high-powered Dolphins attack. See which team to pick here.
How to make Dolphins vs. Commanders picks
The model has simulated Miami vs. Washington 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model's Commanders vs. Dolphins pick at SportsLine.
