Fair Grounds Oaks fair odds: Favoring the up and comers

Horse Racing Nation
Fair Grounds Oaks fair odds: Favoring the up and comers

Ah, springtime, when a young man's fancy turns to love and when handicappers explain away otherwise-inexplicable good performances from 3-year-olds as, "Well, they are growing!"

At least that is what I am telling myself regarding Accommodate Eva in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

Accommodate Eva was last seen winning the Louisiana Broodmare of the Year Lipstick Junky Stakes on Feb. 24 at Fair Grounds. The previous week, Tarifa outran Intricate in the slop to win the Rachel Alexandra (G2). That Rachel Alexandra exacta will be the top two choices in the Fair Grounds Oaks despite Accommodate Eva running faster, according to Len Ragozin's The Sheets data.

That is not to say Accommodate Eva is a more likely winner than either of those, but she is more likely to offer value based on my fair odds versus the morning line.

I actually prefer Intricate to Tarifa here, and at 2-1 morning line versus 8-5, there is a case to consider her as the potential value. But fair-odds-wise, both are underlays. If Tarifa ends up odds on, then Intricate could be playable.

As for Accommodate Eva, she should offer the right price, even if it is not the full morning line. Similarly, Lucy Got Game also took a big step forward last out, and it is worth noting that seven furlongs at Delta Downs is a two-turn affair, so she has had that experience already. 

V V's Dream is a wildcard for me. She has the best performance of the group, but two duds have followed. I thought the Rachel Alexandra was a little better than it looked, so if the public as given up then I'll give her another shot. But any lower than the morning line would be a pass for me because of her last two.

The Fair Grounds Oaks is the fourth leg of an all-stakes Pick 5 on the last five of 12 races at Fair Grounds and is leg three of an all-stakes Pick 5 that also includes two other stakes from Fair Grounds and two stakes from Turfway Park as part of the Bayou-Bluegrass Pick 5.