FanDuel Best Bets: TSN EDGE Staff Picks For NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

There are 14 teams still in contention to win Super Bowl 57 entering NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.

We polled our entire TSN EDGE staff to get updated predictions for which team they think will win it all this season, and the results were not surprising.

The Kansas City Chiefs, which enter the playoffs as the favourite to win it all at +330 at FanDuel, accounted for 30 per cent of the total vote.

The Buffalo Bills, which were the consensus favourite to win it all for the majority of the season and are now the second choice to win it all at +400, also accounted for 30 per cent of the total vote.

While the Chiefs and Bills remain the top two choices to win it all, the Philadelphia Eagles were the most popular pick to go the distance in the NFC.

60 per cent of our roster had the Eagles making it all the way to the Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, only two teams outside of the top four choices to win it all received a Super Bowl winner vote.

Domenic Padula is on the Cincinnati Bengals to win the Super Bowl as the fifth choice at +750.

Luke Bellus is sticking with the same pick he made before the playoffs and predicting the Los Angeles Chargers win it all at +2100.

Before we get to Super Bowl 57, we still have three more weeks of TSN EDGE Staff picks as we look to pick up where we left off during the regular season and continue to give out winners in this column.

Here are our FanDuel Best Bets for the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.

Domenic Padula: Elijah Mitchell 40+ Rushing Yards

I gave out this pick in Friday’s Morning Coffee column.

You can still find it at FanDuel at -114.

Mitchell led the San Francisco 49ers with 963 rushing yards last season, then added 169 rushing yards over three games in his first trip to the postseason.

While Christian McCaffrey is now in San Francisco, Mitchell had five carries for 55 yards in last week’s win over the Arizona Cardinals.

With the forecast calling for rain and wind, and rookie quarterback Brock Purdy set to make his first career NFL start, the 49ers should run the football a ton this week, especially if they play the majority of the game with the lead.

I think McCaffrey and Mitchell will both play key roles in a lopsided win over Seattle.

I’ll make Mitchell 40+ rushing yards my FanDuel Best Bet for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.

Eric Cohen: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers

I have been watching football for 40 years and I have never seen a head coach butcher the final week of the regular season worse than Brandon Staley. Last year in a game where the Chargers and Raiders only needed a tie to both get into the playoffs he inexplicably took time outs in overtime allowing the Raiders time to kick a game-winning field goal that eliminated the Chargers from the playoffs. It was possible the Raiders would have just let the time run out make sure they would get in but we will never know. As bad as that decision was last weeks was worse.

The Chargers knew Baltimore had lost earlier in the day which meant their game vs the Broncos was meaningless. They were locked into the 5 seed and knew they were going to Jacksonville next week. What a great time to rest your ailing stars like Justin Herbert who has been dealing with a rib injury this season, Mike Williams who was dealing with a back injury and edge rusher Joey Bosa who missed 12 games this season. Instead Staley played his starters into the 4 quarter in a meaningless game (which they still lost) and now Williams will miss this game and Bosa was injured again. The Chargers had the opportunity to be a healthy and well rested team going into this game and for whatever reason Staley’s decision making is going to cost them severely.

Back in Week 2 the Chargers played the Chiefs tough but Justin Herbert suffered a rib injury that most people expected would keep him out the following week versus Jacksonville. Instead Herbert clearly played hurt and while he threw for 297 yards he was out played by Trevor Lawrence as the Jaguars crushed Los Angles 38-10 in L.A. You would have thought Staley would understand the importance of being healthy after watching his team struggle with injuries all season but he didn’t use the advantageous situation he had in Week 18.

The Jaguars didn’t play well on offense in Week 18 in a game they needed to win to capture the division. I am expecting Doug Pederson worked all week with Lawrence to make sure he wouldn’t be as nervous in his playoff debut, as he was against Tennessee. I have a lot more faith in a head coach that won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles than I do in a guy who clearly didn’t understand the proper way to coach a meaningless Week 18 game. Give me the Jaguars as the home underdog.

Chris Amberley: New York Giants +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings 

New York dominated its Week 16 matchup with Minnesota, despite falling 27-24 to the Vikings. The Giants outgained Minny by 92 yards and would have prevailed if not for two turnovers inside field goal range.

Getting outproduced by the opposition is nothing new for the Vikings. This is a team that finished 31st in total yards allowed and had a negative point differential despite finishing 13-4.

New York grades out six spots higher than Minnesota per DVOA. They boasted a more efficient passing offence than the Vikings, despite Minny featuring Justin Jefferson, the league’s offensive player of the year.

Daniel Jones shredded the Vikings secondary for 334 yards in their first meeting, and has completed 70-plus percent of his passes over the last two weeks. He’s morphed into one of the better dual threat QB’s this season, scoring seven times with his legs.

Jones has also been a great QB to back as a road ‘dog. He’s 7-1 against the spread in that role this season, with four outright victories.

New York was a league best 13-4 ATS this season, and has covered in eight of nine playoff games as underdogs since 2006.

Connor Ford: Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 Receptions

Austin Ekeler is healthy and ready to go this week, despite head coach Brandon Staley playing his starters in the second half of a meaningless week 18 game. Unfortunately, Mike Williams can’t say the same. Nice one, Staley.  

All jokes aside, Ekeler is a phenomenal receiving back and should be heavily utilized against the Jaguars. He was the only running back to record over 100 receptions this season and had a 36.2% target per route run rate (min. 50 targets), which trailed only Cooper Kupp and DeAndre Hopkins. That’s the kind of volume I like to bet on. 

The matchup against the Jacksonville is more than ideal. They allow the second most receptions and yards per game to the running back position. Ekeler took full advantage of this in week three, racking up eight receptions and 48 yards against the Jags. 

The Jaguars are underrated when it comes to getting after the quarterback. They rank seventh in pass rush grade according to Pro Football Focus. They also had 168 quarterback pressures this season, which ranked tied for second. If Justin Herbert is under consistent pressure in this game, he might look to dump it off to Ekeler for some easy completions.

Additionally, Ekeler should benefit from the absence of Mike Williams. He averaged 10.3 targets and 7.5 receptions in the four games that Williams missed this season. If he sees that kind of volume in this game, five catches will be a breeze. 

Even Render: Dallas Cowboys -2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

I’m a Cowboys fan. I’ll start by getting that out of the way. Although, I don’t typically bet on them unless I absolutely love the spot. I also don’t ever, under any circumstance, bet with my heart over my head.

It took me a while to truly realize how bad Tampa Bay is. I’m not one to bet against Tom Brady in the playoffs and puff my chest out like it’s a lock, because the reality is this team on paper shouldn’t be this bad. We have enough of a sample size. Their play-calling is some of the worst in Football.

On the Dallas side, I think there’s a high probability they’re able to get to Tom Brady all night. The defensive line is their strength. Tom will likely need his receivers to create separation quickly, something they haven’t been able to do consistently all season.

I know it’s the Cowboys and they haven’t won a road playoff game since 1993, AKA the year before I was born.

But we can’t fault this current team for past failures. This is a really good Dallas team in a really favourable spot.

Give me the Cowboys -2.5

Luke Bellus: Geno Smith Under 223.5 Passing Yards 

If Seattle has any chance of winning on Saturday they'll have to do it by controlling the clock and running the ball. 

Pair that with a San Francisco 49ers team that can string together long drives and we have all the makings for a low-scoring NFC West divisional matchup. 

Rivalry’s in sports are awesome.

Seeing two teams challenge each other year after year brings out the best of them, and we see trends blossom right in front of us.

This Seahawks-49ers rivalry is as good as any, and this 49ers defence is as good as any in the league and has been for several years.

In his 24 starts against the 49ers, Russell Wilson averaged just 207 passing yards per game, throwing for more than 225 yards just 11 times.

Meanwhile, Geno Smith hasn’t gone over this number in three straight starts, and with expected bad weather, I like him to go under it for a fourth straight.

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