Flyers vs Ducks odds, picks, predictions: Bet on Philadelphia as small underdog
What looked like a refreshing start for the Flyers has turned to ash in their last nine games — a span in which they have emerged as the victor only twice.
Philadelphia had the displeasure of granting the historically poor San Jose Sharks their first win of the season through 12 games.
They will pay their next visit of their West Coast road trip to the Anaheim Ducks, who are pegged as moneyline favorites (-114) for the first time this season in their 13th game.
The Ducks had equally low expectations prior to the 2023-24 campaign, but they have struck a rhythm having won six of their last seven and the market is taking note.
John Tortorella’s system has never demanded having a 30-plus goalscorer. But even so, he doesn’t have much secret sauce to work with when deploying talent to execute his hard-nosed, puck-thirsty style.
We knew this would be the case in the summer time, but a group that buys into Tortorella is good for a few surprises no matter what the personnel or the circumstance. We’ve seen that with every franchise he’s coaches — maybe except for that wacky year in Vancouver.
A team that’s gradually slipping down the ranks in a competitive division owns several unsavory metrics, but let’s focus on what the Flyers do offer right now: Philadelphia is making opponents work to generate offense as they allow only 26 shots per game, the second lowest in hockey.
When we peel back the advanced numbers, the Flyers rank top ten in both shot attempt differential and expected goals rate.
The Ducks are in the cellar of the NHL in both of those categories. A lot of Anaheim’s success has been by the aid of their goaltending; both John Gibson and Lukas Dostal are saving over three goals above expected.
Anaheim allows over 32 shots, which should alleviate some shooting lanes for a Flyers team that has had trouble getting pucks to the net.
Since Flyers management started dismantling, Travis Konecny has been the unsung hero. His team-leading 12 points comes with 5.9 expected goals for on the year — the only top-20 player in this game. Konecny potted two points in the 7-4 loss on Oct. 28 to the Ducks in Philadelphia.
The Flyers outshot the Ducks and dominated them in the circles merely doubling their face-off wins. The problem was large in part to goaltending. And speaking of which, the best news for Philadelphia comes with Carter Hart’s clearance to start on Friday night. He missed the last three games since leaving mid-contest on Nov. 1 with what was deemed as a middle-body injury.
Hart brings some stability back to the crease commanding a .913 save percentage in contrast to Philly’s other two netminders that have stopped a combined .831 of shots faced.
Both of these teams live in the same talent nest in the NHL; they are young, rebuilding teams trying to establish new identities. The difference comes down to discipline and Tortorella’s team looking to show a response.
The market is favoring the hotter team — I’m taking the value on the Flyers to win straight-up.
Flyers moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
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