Free Agent Predictions Retrospective
Free agency has come and gone this offseason. This year's free agent class is being compared to previous years. The crowd and I made predictions before qualifying offers were extended. Carlos Correa's rumored 12-year, $315 million contract with the Mets is compared with both crowd's and my predictions.
Free Agent Predictions Retrospective compared predictions to real life. Positive numbers mean we under-estimated, negative numbers represent an over-eruption.
Both the crowd and I did well at predicting in the aggregate. I was too high on some players and too low on others. The crowd did better in general, but I'm going to explain why in a separate article. I split the population of free agents into three types: starters, relievers, and hitters. Then I compared 2022 WAR and 2023 WAR estimates to previous years of the free agency. This works best for starters as their demand is more predictable than for relieves or position players. For position hitters, I struggled to figure out specific hitter contracts.
