Golden Knights vs Flames Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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14 March 2024

Golden Knights vs Flames Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Ivan Barbashev has been cooking since his promotion, and our NHL picks like the Golden Knights top-liner to stay hot against the depleted Flames tonight.

Riding the momentum from Tuesday's overtime win, the Vegas Golden Knights face the struggling Calgary Flames, who have had significant difficulties since the trade deadline.

With a lot of new bodies on the Calgary blue line and backup Dustin Wolf in net, should bettors be stacking Overs on the top line in Vegas?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Flames on Thursday, March 14.

Golden Knights vs Flames odds

Golden Knights vs Flames predictions

The Golden Knights top line of Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, and Ivan Barbashev has combined for six goals and 14 total points over the last two games. Eichel looks to be past the injury that kept him out for 19 games and is producing. The trio is playing about 20 minutes per game right now thanks to other injuries to forwards, and all three also play together on the first power-play unit.

Facing the Flames, who have shipped out three starting defensemen, are without their No.1 goalie Jacob Markstrom, and have been outscored 18-5 over the last three games, this Vegas line has a great opportunity to find the score sheet. With Barbashev tagging along with the two best offensive players in this lineup and putting up three points over his last two games since promotion, his Over 0.5 points at +120 is my favorite bet in this game.

The winger is averaging over 19 minutes per game of late, which is up over three minutes on his season average. Any player with a top-line role with PP1 is worth an Over on his point total at -120 or better. Plus-120 here is a steal considering Vegas is a favorite and projected to flirt with four goals.

Since dealing away two of its best defensemen, Calgary has allowed a whopping 23 total points to opposing top lines across three games. Now the inexperienced defense has to play in front of rookie No.3 goalie Dustin Wolf with Jacob Markstrom out.

Wolf is 1-4 SU with a 3.70 GAA and a .880 save percentage this season. He was called up from the AHL this week, and in his last start with the Flames back in February, he gave up six goals to the Sharks in a 6-3 loss. Calgary is trying to insulate its young goaltender, but so far, the prospect has not shown he can play at the NHL level.

Additionally, with a new group of defensemen, the communication on defense and with the rookie goalie is going to be difficult, and that works in favor of the Vegas offense.

In this spot, I’d play Barbashev’s Over 0.5 points to -120. His Over 1.5 points at +600 is also in play.

My best bet: Ivan Barbashev Over 0.5 points (+120 at SIA)

Golden Knights vs Flames same-game parlay

Over 6.5

Golden Knights -1.5

Golden Knights to score first

The Knights could be scoring early and often, just as Calgary's last three opponents have done. The losses of Noah Hanifin (gain for Vegas) and Chris Tanev are huge for a defense that is playing with new and inexperienced replacements. Without Markstrom in goal, teams are going to continue to pad stats against Calgary.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the visitors pop the first goal in this one, as the Flames have conceded the first goal in every game since the trade deadline.

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Golden Knights vs Flames moneyline and Over/Under analysis

SIA opened the Knights as -145 road favorites but that number has shortened to -160 as of 2 p.m. ET today. The move is likely due to Wolf being confirmed and Markstrom being ruled out. The Over has also seen plenty of money after SIA opened at 6 and has moved as far as 6.5, -120 to the Over.

Wolf is certainly moving the odds, but Calgary is dealing with some injuries to the forward group. Andrei Kuzmenko is questionable with an upper-body injury, Andrew Mangiapane is dealing with an illness, and Connor Zary is out. This was already a team playing its No.3 goalie and sporting a blue line that's one of the weakest in hockey. Calgary has given up 18 goals over the last three games, and there isn’t much talent left on this roster.

I could be convinced to back the Flames as big home dogs with Markstrom in net, but Wolf and Dan Vladar are bottom-tier netminders. Vegas should be able to put up four or five goals. Colorado won 6-2 in Calgary on Tuesday, but the Avs did nothing in the third period as they had to play in Vancouver the following day. Colorado took it easy on the Flames.

I can only side with the Knights here, and the puck line -1.5 at +145 isn’t a bad look either.

The Over 6.5 does also interest me. Adin Hill has allowed three or more goals in nine of his last 10 games and even if Calgary is without some key forwards, they could flirt with two or three goals. Over the last 10 games, these two clubs are a combined 17-2-1 to the Over, which is hard to ignore.

I like the offensive matchup the Golden Knights have, but the Over 6.5 is also a side I’m behind thanks to the overall goaltending matchup and both teams giving up a lot of chances at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games.

Golden Knights vs Flames betting trend to know

The Golden Knights have covered the puck line in 58 of their last 102 games (+17.95 Units / 12% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Flames.

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