Guinness Galway Hurdle: five to follow and big-race tip
Tom Thurgood picks five to follow for the €270,000 Guinness Galway Hurdle, the big highlight at the Galway Festival. Watch who wins on Racing TV!
Twenty runners are set to the line up in the Guinness Galway Hurdle and, after a remarkable 200mm of rain in Ballybrit since the start of July, the ground is starting to dry out with a merited reprieve from the elements on Tuesday and Wednesday at the Galway Festival.
Four of the past five Galway Hurdle winners have returned SPs at double-figure prices while horses that have hit the places in that time include a 40-1 chance, three at 33-1 and a further three at 25-1.
Looking at the statistics, this is a race in which experience counts for plenty in general and, with an exciting handicap debutant with Grade One form set to go off at a short price, the race has an each-way shape with extra terms likely to be on offer with various firms.
Below are some general trends which have proven helpful this century, plus five runners to note and an idea of the winner.
Big weights underestimated
Horses with big weights have outperformed market expectations in this race since 1997 and particularly in recent years as class acts – mostly trained by Willie Mullins – have defied big burdens.
Saldier, Aramon, Sharjah and Clondaw Warrior have all triumphed for Closutton towards the top of the handicap since 2016, though runners from other yards have hit the places at big prices recently including Jesse Evans (9-1) last year and Bedrock (33-1) for Iain Jardine in 2018.
Since 1997, horses carrying 11st 5lb or more have produced 27% of the winners from just 11% of the total runners (+£14.25, 1.41 A/E) and such runners trained by Willie Mullins fare better still (25%, +£29.50, 2.72 A.E). Zarak The Brave will likely go off favourite this year.WIN: We've teamed up with HRI and Racing Breaks to offer this VIP package for two people to the Irish Champions Festival! Don't forget to submit your entry.
Elliott out to break duck
Gordon Elliott has saddled 30 runners in the Galway Hurdle and has yet to hit the target, although 19 of those have gone off at double-figures and the yard has had seven runners hit the places.
Glan’s fourth last year – he’s snuck in as a reserve again this time – was the first placed effort for the yard Bayan finished second back in 2014. Things can change and it might just be something to bear in mind simply given that he has five runners and quarter of the field lining up this year.
Experience very useful
We’re all looking for well-handicapped horses that are ahead of the assessor or well-weighted with conditions in mind, though it’s worth pointing that ample experience is no barrier to a bold bid.
Horses that have run 15 times or less under Rules (Britain and Ireland only) don’t have a great record in this (4.6%, -£84, 0.59 A/E) while four-year-olds and five-year-olds combined have a strike-rate of 4%. Since 1997, they have produced 23% of the total winners from 32% of the total runners.
ZARAK THE BRAVE
Trainer: Willie Mullins Odds: 7-2
There are easier openings for your handicap debut than the Galway Hurdle and only one four-year-old has won in the past 25 years, but stable confidence is strong behind Zarak The Brave and it’s worth listening to Paul Townend on our Galway special of the On The Wire podcast about this one.
The rider chose Zarak The Brave over last season’s standout juvenile Lossiemouth at the Winter Festival at Fairyhouse last December and the four-year-old has good Grade One form coming into this.
The traditional helter-skelter nature of this race may be something of a leveller and luck in running is also useful at Galway, but he’s obviously well-handicapped for a top yard and he’s one that you have to keep on-side to some degree here.
FILEY BAY
Trainer: Emmet Mullins Odds: 13-2
He boasts some proper handicap hurdle form after proving very progressive last term over jumps, being unlucky not to win the Betfair Hurdle in February before another excellent effort from an 8lb higher mark in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
The tongue-tie is back on now after a prep run for this in maiden company on the Flat at Roscommon last time and he look more obviously progressive than Cape Gentleman, the stable’s sole runner in the Galway Hurdle, who finished third two years ago.
Mullins has regularly advertised in recent times that he’s one of the best target trainers around and the yard has a 25% strike-rate at the Galway Festival (£+6.75, 1.19 A/E), with his runners hitting the places 55% of the time.
TUDOR CITY
Trainer: Tony Martin Odds: 16-1
He's not getting any younger and this race might be a little better than last year’s renewal, but the only two-time winner of the race clearly thrives for this occasion and it would be foolish to write him off in his bid for a famous hat-trick on his ninth consecutive appearance at the Galway Festival. Fran Berry was on board for that first appearance back in 2015!
This has surely been his target since crossing the line in front last year and after some uninspiring efforts over jumps over the winter he could well be coming back to the boil at just the right time, readily landing the Apprentice Derby at the Irish Derby Festival last time and not from an ideal position either.
Liam McKenna claims 5lb and rode this horse to victory last year.
MIGHTY TOM
Trainer: Cian Michael Collins Odds: 16-1
He's proven progressive in just two starts for this yard and, while this is his by far toughest assignment, he still rates as an interesting contender.
He showed his better pieces of form after a break for former trainer Tom Cooper but he’s looked a new model for Cian Michael Collins, showing form that has worked out well when third at the Punchestown Festival behind Seddon and The Very Man on stable debut before bolting up by 10 lengths in Listed company at Killarney last time, after which connections pointed immediately at this race.
The eight-year-old was suited by a strong gallop and being dropped out – a set-up he may not quite get here up in class and from an 11lb higher mark – but he has an interesting mix of experience while still having more to offer given he is in the form of his life and he’s one to readily dismiss at the prices.
FILS D’OUDAIRIES
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Odds: 16-1
Elliott won his third Galway Plate on Wednesday but the Hurdle still eludes him, and while the trainer’s Fils D’Oudairies has 19 rivals to see off there doesn’t look an abundance of pace on here and he could get the run of things out in front under Keith Donoghue.
He got a good ride last time at Tipperary to land the Grimes Hurdle but that was still his best effort at the age of 8 and he could be a little underestimated given that big weights have not prevented bold bids in this in recent years (three have won in the past five years, all trained by Willie Mullins, but top-weights as a whole have hit the places 25% of the time in performance better than expected by the market) and he’s fancied to make a decent show of things with this race make-up in his favour.
VERDICT
The vibes have been strong about Zarak The Brave and the fact he was held in similar regard to Lossiemouth at the start of the last autumn is significant. The yard know what they have and Willie Mullins' runners have shown how potent they are under big weights in this race in recent years, so the four-year-old is difficult to oppose with genuine conviction.
However, while he could easily win this well - and is fancied to leave a mark of 145 well behind in time – this big-field scenario on this narrow track is a new set-up for him on handicap debut against older horses and not something to wholly take on trust at the prices. If he was 9-2 or 5-1, I think that would be different.
I will have a small saver on him but my principal each-way fancy is FILEY BAY, who appeals as a solid option given the strength of his handicap hurdle form. Despite being well-beaten at a short price, he did show promise on his return at Roscommon when racing a bit too keenly throughout and made quite nice ground from widest on the track before being eased at the furlong marker in an assignment that was likely a view to this one. Galway Plate winner Ash Tree Meadow finished third in that race in an event which has proven pretty good form and Filey Bay can go well here at 13-2 with the tongue tie back on.
