Guinness Kerry National: Three horses for your shortlist

Harry Allwood pinpoints a trio of contenders he expects to go close in the Guinness Kerry National at Listowel on Wednesday, live on Racing TV.

The Guinness Kerry National takes centre stage at Listowel on Wednesday, live on Racing TV at 4.25pm, and with plenty of rain forecast, there’s a good chance this year’s contest could develop into a real test of stamina.

Quite a few of the leading contenders would prefer a sounder surface, so this is something worth bearing in mind ahead of the three-mile feature.

Unbeaten chaser Salvador Ziggy heads the betting and is one of seven runners for Gordon Elliott, although the leading Irish handler may hold stronger claims with one at a bigger price.

10 of the past 11 winners of the race carried 10st 10lb or less to victory, while the last favourite to win the Kerry National was Northern Alliance in 2009. There have been winners chalked up at 33-1, 25-1, 20-1, 16-1 and 14-1 since then, too.

Below are three contenders who should relish the conditions, and are all capable of going close if putting their best foot forward. Best of luck.

Ain't That A Shame

Trainer: Henry de Bromhead. Jockey: Rachael Blackmore. Odds: 15-2.

Ain't That A Shame failed to stay the trip when disappointing in the Grand National when last seen, but he went close in two staying handicap chases last season, and a repeat of either of those performances will see him go close here.

Henry de Bromhead's charge found only the well-handicapped The Big Dog too good when narrowly denied in last year's Munster National, and was again not beaten far when fourth in the Paddy Power Chase on his next start off a rating of 144.

He now finds himself on a rating of 146, but this will be just his ninth outing over fences, and he should have more to offer over the larger obstacles, despite being a nine-year-old.

Although he hasn't run since April, his outing in the Munster National last season came following a 220-day break, so his recent absence is not a concern.

His handler has been operating at a strike-rate of over 20 per cent in the past fortnight, too, and it would be a surprise if this race has not been the plan all summer. Soft ground will also be ideal for him, and three miles looks his optimum trip, so there's lots to like about his chances.

Gevrey

Trainer: Gordon Elliott. Jockey: Brian Hayes. Odds: 11-1.

This seven-year-old has steadily progressed over fences and caught the eye when a fast-finishing fourth in the Magners Plate Handicap Chase (2m4½f) at the Cheltenham Festival last season before taking another step forward to finish second in the Irish Grand National on his next start.

He cruised into contention turning for home in the latter contest (he touched 1.89 in running) and was only worn down close home by I Am Maximus.

Both of those outings mentioned came on soft ground, so the more rain that falls, the better his chance is likely to be, especially as his other best efforts have been with cut in the ground, and a recent spin over hurdles, following a four-month absence, should have him primed for this contest.

He finished second on both of his previous starts at Listowel and Brian Hayes, who is on board again, got a great tune out of him in the Irish Grand National.

A rating of 138 should be within reach, and he's at the right end of the weights.

Gabbys Cross

Trainer: Henry de Bromhead. Jockey: Peter Carberry. Odds: 25-1.

Has work to do to reverse form with a few of these following his effort in the Galway Plate (most notably Ash Tree Meadow and Authorized Art) last time out, but a case can certainly be made for him on a few of his performances from last year.

The eight-year-old defeated Busselton in a valuable handicap chase at Galway before finishing behind that rival in the Guinness Kerry National last year. However, Henry de Bromhead said afterwards that his charge found the ground too lively on that occasion, and he finished a close-up fourth in the Paddy Power Chase on yielding ground next time out.

He's now rated 141, and while he was a shade disappointing when last seen, there is a chance he could strip fitter for the outing (it was his first start since running in the Grand National), despite the fact he has gone well fresh in the past.

This test should also prove ideal, and there's every chance he could sneak a place at chunky odds.