How to Bet Preseason & Stats to Know

Last season, underdogs were ruling the NFL regular season. In a campaign gone to the dogs, the longer shot on the board went an impressive 151-124-9 ATS. That’s a 54.9% win ratio for the underdogs. However, this trend didn’t hold water during preseason action. Straight up, favorites were 31-15-1 (.670) during the 2022 preseason. Against the spread, the chalk was 24-18-5 (.564).

Last season, just four NFL teams managed to go over more than under during regular-season play. The 2022 NFL Preseason was displaying a tight total race, with the over winning 25-22-1. Here’s a usual trend to remember heading into Week 1, though. You know that old theory about defenses being ahead of the offenses early in the preseason? Not true. Last season, during the opening round of preseason action, the over held a significant 14-3 edge.

Ravens Rule NFL Preseason

Certainly, the approach that NFL teams take to the preseason varies from club to club. The undisputed kings of preseason play are the Baltimore Ravens. They’ve won 23 games in a row. The last time Baltimore dropped a preseason game was a 20-19 setback at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons on September 3, 2015.

The Ravens are 6-point home favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday, August 12. You can see all of the NFL odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. Access this BetMGM promo code to bet on the NFL Week 1 preseason action here.

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is a believer that the development of a winning culture begins from Day 1 of training camp, so he plays to win in the preseason. Other coaches do not share in this philosophy.

Degenerates take notes ��20-3 ATS in those games. pic.twitter.com/7367dhtION

— IB THE GAMBLER �� (@incarceratedbob) August 3, 2023

The leader in the opposing camp is Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams. Traditionally, McVay doesn’t like to play his starters at all in preseason games. Three of his stars – quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald – didn’t see a single snap of playing time last year.

Coming off a 5-12 campaign, however, this year McVay may be taking a different approach. Readying for their Week 1 game against city rivals the Los Angeles Chargers, McVay is allowing that most Rams starters will be seeing at least limited game time during exhibition play.

Bad Teams Are Good Preseason Bets

George Costanza would love betting on the NFL Preseason, because so often it is Opposite Day. Bad is frequently good, and good is often bad.

Last season, four NFL playoff teams – the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4), Minnesota Vikings (0-3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) and the Seattle Seahawks (0-3) – endured winless preseasons. By contrast, the two worst teams in the NFL – the Houston Texans (3-0) and Chicago Bears (3-0)  – enjoyed perfection during their exhibition slates.

Weaker teams tend to be less certain about their direction, so they’ll give their regulars more playing time during the preseason.

The ultimate statement regarding this trend was made by the 2008 Detroit Lions and reemphasized by the 2017 Cleveland Browns. The only teams in NFL history to endure 0-16 regular seasons, both clubs went 4-0 in preseason play leading into those seasons.

At the other end of the spectrum, the league’s two unbeaten teams – the 1972 Miami Dolphins (14-0) and 2007 New England Patriots (16-0) – were mediocre preseason performers. Miami went 3-3, while the Patriots were 2-2.

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