In Game 3, it’s Phillies’ home-field advantage vs. Braves’ momentum. Let’s get ‘nuts’

PHILADELPHIA — When the Atlanta Braves meet the Philadelphia Phillies here on Wednesday, it won’t just be two feisty teams matching up. The third game of this National League Division Series will also be a clash of enduring postseason myths: momentum versus home-field advantage.

Momentum can be tough to spot, but it wasn’t too subtle on Monday in Atlanta, when the Braves staged a thunderous late-inning comeback to shock the Phillies, 5-4, evening this best-of-five series with a spellbinding double play. And while every crowd cheers for the home team, not every crowd can match the zeal of the 45,000 towel-waving maniacs who will jam into Citizens Bank Park around 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

“I told everyone this past offseason that Philly was the loudest stadium I’ve ever been in, especially last year in the postseason,” Braves reliever A.J. Minter said on Tuesday. “We know Philly fans — we know them pretty well — and they’re passionate for their team, and so are we. But it’s definitely going to be chaotic.”

The Braves may have spent last winter with a gonging neon liberty bell blaring in their brains. After splitting the first two games of this round in Atlanta last fall, the Phillies routed the Braves twice here to advance to the NL Championship Series. They staged a repeat against the San Diego Padres — split on the road, sweep at home — to barge into the World Series.

“I think we have the best home-field advantage in the league,” said the Phillies’ Aaron Nola, who will start Game 3. “I think our crowd is the rowdiest, and we love playing in front of that. I feel like it is tough sometimes for opposing teams to play in this stadium, but we like it a lot. We feed off of it.”

Braves manager Brian Snitker acknowledged that the atmosphere in Philadelphia would factor into his Game 3 pitching plans. On Tuesday afternoon — with the Braves still in Atlanta — Snitker said the team had not yet decided on a starter; the rookie right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver, who started the season in High A, is one option, as is a bullpen game and perhaps righty Bryce Elder, though he struggled against the Phillies in late September.

“It’s as nuts of a place as I’ve ever been, that’s for sure … I’m sure these guys are talking about it,” Snitker said, when asked how the crowd affected the Braves last October. “But I think for the most part, when you’ve been through what these guys have been through — you know what, it kind of jacks them up, too.”

Indeed, home-field advantage tends to be overrated in October. In the past 10 World Series (2012 through 2022, excluding the neutral-site Series in 2020), home teams have gone 27-33. Eight out of 10 times, the winning team clinched on the road, including the Braves in 2021 at Houston.

The cauldron of Citizens Bank Park hardly intimidated the Astros last fall. After losing Game 3 here to fall behind in the World Series, two games to one, Houston beat Nola with a combined no-hitter in Game 4, stole Game 5 with help from a leaping catch at the center-field wall (sound familiar?) and wrapped up the title at home in Game 6.

“It wasn’t necessarily shocking because we were playing a pretty good club who’s been there before,” Thomson said, referring to the home losses in the World Series. “But I think that we play our best baseball at home, whether it’s playoff baseball or regular-season baseball, so guys are comfortable here. They love playing in front of our fans, and I think it gives us an edge.”

It sure looked that way last week, when the Phillies swept the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card Series, allowing only two runs. Nola twirled seven shutout innings and Bryson Stott launched a grand slam in the Game 2 clincher.

In Game 2 of the NLDS, alas, Stott grounded out with the bases loaded to end the first inning. The Phillies would strand 11 runners in all, wasting several chances to break things open. They kept the game close enough for the Braves to storm back.

“Everyone knows if we go down 0-2 here at home and have to go to Philly, the odds are stacked against us,” Minter said. “And for us to go out there, split the series, and have the momentum going back to Philly is huge for us.

“We’re going to have to play really good baseball moving forward; we’re going to have to clean some stuff up. But we couldn’t ask to be in a better situation, and we’re feeling confident.”

The Braves were the best team in baseball in the regular season, at 104-58, and after their rousing performance on Monday, they’ve earned their swagger. Then again, this is a franchise with a painful history of confident moments gone awry:

• In the 1958 World Series, the Braves blew a three-games-to-one lead over the Yankees, dropping the final two games at home in Milwaukee and missing a chance to win consecutive titles.

• In the 1993 NLCS — the first postseason edition of this rivalry — the stately Braves walloped the scruffy Phillies in Games 2 and 3 (combined score: 23-7), but somehow lost the next three games and the pennant.

• In 1996, again as the reigning champions, the Braves went home for Game 3 of the World Series on a five-game October winning streak (combined score: 48-2). Their coronation as a dynasty never happened, though, because they dropped four straight to the Yankees.

None of that matters today, of course. But it’s a reminder, at least, that for all the factors that seem so important now, the baseball gods have a plan all their own.

(Top photo of Phillies fans during the Wild Card Series: Matt Slocum / Associated Press)