Kentucky Derby Strategies Uncovering Betting Trends
The first Triple Crown of the year is edging ever closer, with Churchill Downs hosting the 149 edition of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 6. It promises to be yet another thrilling renewal of the race, with this year’s crop of three-year-olds looking to join the legendary figures such as Secretariat, American Pharoah, and Affirmed in winning the prestigious Grade 1.
But, what are some of the key trends that should be followed in order to maximize the Kentucky Derby odds available this year?
The first big day in the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby took place on Monday, as the draw for the race at Churchill Downs was staged. There are just three furlongs covered before the first bend, meaning the start could make or break a contender’s chances.
Stall five is the most successful in the history of the race, with ten previous winners breaking from this gate. That sees the position have a 10.80% strike rate in Derby history, elevating the chances of Tapit Trice this weekend. The most recent winner from stall five was Always Dreaming in 2017.
Other gates with high strike rates include stalls ten (10.5%), 15 (9%), and 20 (11.1%). However, recent bias has been with the highest draws, including Authentic, who landed success from stall 15 in 2020.
Meanwhile, Country House landed victory from gate 18 in 2019, and last year’s winner, Rich Strike, started from gate 20. However, the one slight anomaly to this trend is gate 17, which is yet to secure a victory from 43 starts. That trend could be damning to one of the key contenders in the Kentucky Derby odds, Derma Sotogake.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby sees over 40 races staged, with horses able to pick up qualifying points to secure their berth. Over 99 runners on the Derby trail picked up points this year, but only the top 20 can start the race, with Skinner scraping into the field with 49 points.
It could be a huge factor for Forte that the G1 Florida Derby has been among the most successful prep races, with five previous winners having completed the double since 2006. On the West Coast, the G1 Santa Anita Derby has a strong record, with three winners having landed victory since 2012, including Triple Crown hero Justify in 2018. That could present market support in the Kentucky Derby odds for Practical Move.
While many of the significant preps have resulted in at least one winning runner, the two races that many bettors have often opted to overlook are the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass. The latter was won by Lord Miles, but he is a huge price to become the first runner since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 to do the double. It could be more damning for Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice, who is bidding to become the first winner of that race since Strike The Gold in 1991 to complete the double.
The Beyer speed figures should take an important role in researching before making Kentucky Derby predictions. This could help to whittle down the field to the most likely winners. Historically, eleven of the previous 13 winners of the Derby have achieved a rating of at least 100 before winning the Derby.
Interestingly, very few horses in the field this year reach those criteria, with just three achieving that figure. Forte and Practical Move both hit the required figures on their previous start, while Two Phil’s boasts the best rating of 101 after landing the Jeff Ruby Steaks on the synthetic.
However, neither of the Japanese runners in the field has Beyer ratings, which is most troubling for handicappers when it comes to Derma Sotogake’s chances.
One of the most important trends to consider before examining the Kentucky Derby odds is the last run of the contenders. Stats show that ten of the previous 12 winners of the race came into the Derby after winning on their previous start. Although, Rich Strike is one of the anomalies to that trend.
Six horses come into the race after landing victories on their previous start, including pre-race favorite Forte. Tapit Trice, Practical Move, and Kingsbarns also come into the race with undefeated records. However, the latter will also be looking to become only the second runner in Derby history to land victory in the race, having failed to make a start as a two-year-old.
Other horses that landed victories in their previous starts were: Derma Sotogake, in the G2 UAE Derby, Two Phil’s in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, and Angel of Empire in the G1 Arkansas Derby.
The trends are hard to ignore when it comes to making wagers on the Kentucky Derby, and they certainly highlight the case of Forte. The three-year-old has been the standout star on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and he is the credible contender to land Triple Crown glory.
Meanwhile, the trends also further the chances of Two Phil’s and Angel of Empire, with both offering excellent value in the current Kentucky Derby odds.
- 1: Forte (+300)
- 2: Two Phil’s (+1600)
- 3: Angel of Empire (+700)
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