Lightning vs Stars Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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12 February 2023

Lightning vs Stars Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

The Stars and Lightning defenses have both been stingy of late — especially in the opening frame. With two world-class goalies in nets, see why our NHL picks are backing another slow start Saturday.

The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning are set to meet for what will be an outstanding goalie matchup between Jake Oettinger and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Vasilevskiy is coming off a 30-save shutout against the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche and Oettinger is coming off a 38-save win against the Minnesota Wild, only allowing one goal against.

This should be a really competitive, tightly-played battle.

Find out my best bet in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Stars vs. Lightning on February 11.

Lightning vs Stars best odds

Lightning vs Stars picks and predictions

The Dallas Stars have been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL this season, coming into this game with the second-best goals against average, only allowing 2.53 goals against per game and they also have the second-best penalty kill. A lot of the success has to do with Jake Oettinger who enters this game boasting a record of 23-7-7 with a .926 save percentage and a 2.22 GAA. He has a league’s fifth-best +18.5 goals saved above expected.

Believe it or not, Oettinger has actually outperformed his counterpart in Andrei Vasilveskiy this season, but no disrespect to Vasilevskiy since he has still been excellent. He enters this game with similar numbers to Oettinger, skating to a 24-13-1 record with a .918 save percentage and a 2.56 GAA. That being said, he should be feeling great coming off a shutout performance.

The Stars have been playing very strong defensively lately and both teams have been very good in first periods. They both allow less than a goal on average in the opening frame, the Stars giving up 0.62 goals in the first period and the Bolts allowing 0.76.

I think this game will have a very defensive start and I like the Under in the first period.

My best bet: Under 1.5 first period (-120 at BetMGM)

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Lightning vs Stars moneyline analysis

The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning have both been playing some really strong hockey lately, but something about this Dallas team feels different to me. Oettinger is making a very strong case for the Vezina trophy and the Stars just seem to be way more consistent than the Lighting have been throughout the season.

Dallas has been a Top 10 team in nearly every category this season, showing just how consistent their game has truly been. They rank ninth in goals per game (3.36), second in goals against per game (2.53), seventh on power play percentage (24.8%), and second on the penalty kill. They are very well-rounded.

I’m not saying the Lighting have been bad by any means, but where these teams stand right now, I think Dallas just happens to be better all around. I like them with the edge on home ice.

Lightning vs Stars Over/Under analysis

You can make the argument that both of these teams have a lot of offensive talent, but the Dallas Stars have been incredible defensively when playing on home ice. In their last six home games, the Under has hit all six times and with these two goalies how could you think it won’t hit again?

Vasilevskiy is skating to a 2.84 GAA when he is on the road while Oettinger is at a 2.40 GAA on home ice. Every point matters this time of year and these two net minders are competitors, they know how good they need to be in order to beat the guy across from them. Neither team has necessarily been on an offensive tear as of late, so I think this is a good spot for the Under.