Mackenzie Dern by early submission?

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UFC Vegas 73 is happening this Saturday (May 20th) and the APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada will play host to ranked strawweights in the main event. The UFC’s #8 rated 115-pounder, Mackenzie Dern, will collide with the #14 rated, Angela Hill, in what feels like one of those two-true-outcome bouts. Either Dern is snagging a sub, or Hill is going to style on the feet all the way to a decision win. Does everyone agree, because the betting odds do. Let’s go take a look at them.

The oddsmakers have Dern listed as a -175 betting favorite here, with a $100 gamble at that line possibly seeing a complete payout of $157.14. As for Hill, she is on deck with a small underdog position of +145. Throwing a hundo on Hill stands to see a total return of $245. We’ve seen Angela lose this sort of fight before, so laying the chalk on Dern just might be worth some consideration. Just keep in mind that if Dern can’t get the fight to the ground, the jabs are coming.

Dern is a submission legend. Her path to victory here is clearly defined, and Hill is notorious for giving up the takedown. Angela has been getting better at it, but just as MacKenzie’s standup skills are far inferior to her’s, there just aren’t enough hours in the day for Hill to remotely catch up. Including TUF, Hill has only been submitted three times, but each of them occurred in the very first round (insert eyes emoji).

Seven of Angela’s nine UFC wins have come by way of decision, with one finish happening from a cut, and the other by way of ground and pound. Hill has volume for days, but KO power is something she isn’t really known for. Dern’s striking is far from elite, but she at least has a sturdy chin on her. So if Hill is to get her hand raised tomorrow night, then logic would suggest that it will be a voluminous decision.

Next to a draw, the least likely outcome of UFC Vegas 73’s main event is an Angela finish. If you grab a telescope and aim it at the sky, then you’ll find the ‘Hill wins inside distance’ proposition soaring at +700. As we said earlier, Hill has a knack for the scorecards, and the prop bet ‘Hill wins by decision’ is trending as the second most likely outcome at +200. Going back the other way, there’s ‘Dern wins by decision’ looming at +225.

Sometimes betting odds just don’t make any sense. For example, the prop bet ‘Dern wins by submission’ is currently offered up with a +150 moneyline, however, the wager ‘Dern wins inside distance’ can be had for a more lucrative line of +155. Huh? What? How? Why? This is precisely why shopping around is a must!

• Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill: Strawweight
• Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez: Middleweight
• Lupita Godinez vs. Emily Ducote: (W) Flyweight
• Joaquin Buckley vs. Andre Fialho: Welterweight
• Diego Ferreira vs. Michael Johnson: Lightweight

• Maheshate vs. Viacheslav Borshchev: Lightweight
• Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Vanessa Demopoulos: Strawweight
• Gilbert Urbina vs. Orion Cosce: Welterweight
• Ilir Latifi vs. Rodrigo Nascimento: Heavyweight
• Chase Hooper vs. Nick Fiore: Lightweight
• Victoria Leonardo vs. Natália Silva: (W) Flyweight
• Takashi Sato vs. Themba Gorimbo: Welterweight

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