Maple Leafs picks and props vs. Flyers March 19: Bet on Toronto to win, Tavares to notch a point

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Philadelphia for the second time in a week to battle the Flyers.

The pregame narrative: Toronto walloped Philadelphia last week and although I'm not predicting a blowout, I will pick the Maple Leafs on the moneyline. Additionally, John Tavares is a nice value to register a point.

NHL oddsas of 1:52 p.m. ET on 03/19/2024.

Maple Leafs picks and props vs. Flyers

Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-132)

Toronto outplayed the Carolina Hurricanes for 58 minutes on Saturday.

Unfortunately, Carolina scored two goals in the lone two minutes of play it dominated. The Canes pushed the contest to a shootout and eventually won, 5-4.

Still, a tough loss isn't enough to get me off the Maple Leafs. They've won 12 of their last 16 games and that includes a 6-2 victory over Philadelphia last Thursday.

Philly has struggled between the pipes in Carter Hart's absence. He leads the team with a .906 save percentage this season, while Samuel Ersson (.898) and Felix Sandstrom (.829) have noticeably lower marks.

Poor goaltending has been especially impactful for a low-scoring team like the Flyers. They're generating the ninth-fewest goals per game (2.91), which isn't good enough to win with subpar goaltending.

Key stat: Philadelphia has lost three of its last four games, surrendering 21 goals during this stretch.

Quick pick

Tavares to score 1+ points (-125): Tavares' play is declining. That's evident.

His 2.5 points per 60 mark is his lowest since joining Toronto. He's on pace for 60 points in 80 games, which would be his worst output in any campaign where he's played 70-plus games since his rookie year.

But this is still a decent line to back the Maple Leafs captain at. He's on the top power play with Mitch Marner out, which is a major boost to his offensive prospects.

Additionally, he's entering this contest in solid form. He notched a pair of points against Carolina on Saturday and now has four goals and five points in his last seven outings.