Maple Leafs picks vs. Ducks Feb. 16: Bet the over with Matthews heating up
The Toronto Maple Leafs host an improving Anaheim Ducks team on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Anaheim is playing better hockey as of late and should keep it close against Toronto. Secondly, the over is a nice wager to make with both offences clicking ahead of this contest.
NHL oddsas of 4:11 p.m. ET on 02/16/2024.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Ducks
Best Bet: Ducks +1.5 (-104)
If you've blindly been fading Maple Leafs puck line all season long, you're doing pretty well for yourself.
Toronto has been the least profitable team in this betting market, costing bettors 21.45 units this campaign per Scores and Odds.
Finishing teams off in regulation has been a struggle for the squad. It's tied for the ninth-fewest regulation wins (18) in the league this season.
Anaheim's in the mix for the first overall pick but the team boasts a winning puck-line record (28-25-0) this year.
The Ducks are improving their play as of late, also. They're coming off a 5-1 victory over the Ottawa Senators where they scored their third win in their last five games.
They've also been a better road outfit than a home one, going 11-14-1 away from Honda Center compared to 8-18-1 at it.
Having impact rookie defenceman Pavel Mintyukov back is a plus. It makes sense to back Anaheim at this price.
Key stat: Toronto has failed to win by two-plus goals in 11 of its last 14 games.
Quick pick
Over 6.5 goals (-120): One reason for Anaheim's improved play is a steady stream of offence.
Despite ranking 29th in goals per game this season (2.57), the Ducks have scored three-plus goals in six of their last seven.
The team should be able to find extra room to operate with top defenceman Morgan Rielly serving his suspension still.
Additionally, a certain absence from Anaheim should loom large in this game. Goalie John Gibson exited the team's most recent outing against the Sens with an upper-body injury.
That makes Lukas Dostal the likely starter. He owns a very pedestrian .900 save percentage on the campaign.
Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in team save percentage with Toronto sitting 21st (.895) and Anaheim placing 19th (.896).
The over on this total has hit in three of Toronto's last four outings thanks to stellar performances from Auston Matthews.
