Mariners vs. Cubs prediction, odds: bet on the hot hand

We have a Mariners vs. Cubs prediction as Chicago continues its homestand after picking up a series win against the Rangers. The Mariners also hope to build momentum following their series win over the Guardians.

However, both teams couldn’t complete the sweep on Sunday, so they’ll be looking to get back in the win column with this series opener.

Mariners ace Luis Castillo will make his third start, and he’s yet to allow a run. The Cubs will counter with Drew Smyly, who’s looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Reds when he allowed seven runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings.

Although Smyly is fourth in the Cubs’ rotation, he could pose some problems for the Mariners. This preview will examine whether he can benefit from the Mariners’ slow start against left-handed pitching.

Moneyline: SEA (-149) vs. CHC (+126)

Spread: SEA -1.5 (+110) vs. CHC +1.5 (-130)

Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Mariners ML -149

Luis Castillo (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Drew Smyly (0-1, 11.57 ERA)

While you might think this matchup is pretty straightforward, I’d argue that certain subtleties exist here.

For example, FanGraphs ranks the Mariners 24th against left-handed pitching with a below-average wRC+ value of 90. Moreover, according to Baseball Savant, this Mariners’ roster has 37 plate appearances against Smyly, and they’re hitting just .206 with a .199 xBA and a .259 xSLG.

However, Seattle does have an average launch angle of 19.6 degrees in those at-bats. And when you factor in that we could have wind gusts up to eight mph blowing out to left-center field, the conditions could favor the visitors more than the home team.

If we turn to Castillo, the Cubs have had much better success against him, given their .333 batting average with a .381 wOBA and .412 xSLG in 94 plate appearances. Much of the Cubs’ experience comes from facing Castillo inside the division during his years with the Reds.

However, it’s worth noting that despite those good offensive numbers, the Reds won each of Castillo’s past three starts against the Cubs. Additionally, he’s limited this current Cubs roster to an average launch angle of 5.2 degrees.

Castillo seems in a much better position now than when he was with the Reds. In 150 career starts, he has a 3.54 ERA despite being below .500 (49-55) as a pitcher.

In 2022, he posted his best career ERA with a 2.99 mark. And although his 3.35 SIERA from last season points to a slight regression, it’s still considered elite.

Thus, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised with his 0.00 ERA, 1.60 xERA and 1.85 FIP this season.

In most cases, I’d be looking to find value with Smyly as an underdog. However, Castillo is completely invigorated now that he’s out of Cincinnati, and I think an added dimension of his quality will be on full display this season.

As a result, I plan to swallow the juice here and get behind Castillo to continue his hot start on the road in Chicago.