Marlins vs. Padres prediction and odds for Monday, Aug. 21 (Weathers reunion)
If all hope wasn’t lost at the trade deadline when the San Diego Padres decided to add, it is now. The Padres lost three of four to Arizona over the weekend to fall to 59-66 and now they’re six games back of the final wild card spot with three teams in front of them.
One of those teams is the Miami Marlins who are 64-61.
The Padres and Michael Wacha will host the Marlins for three games starting tonight. It’ll be Wacha against former Padre, Ryan Weathers on the mound in this one.
Wacha is 9-2 with a 2.68 ERA in 16 starts this year and Weathers is 1-7 with a 6.89 ERA. Weathers has made one start since joining Miami.
Miami is an underdog, even against a team behind them in the standings. The Marlins need to keep distance between themselves and San Diego.
Since July 1, the San Diego Padres have a wRC+ of 121 and an OPS of .799 both of which rank in the top 10 of the MLB over that stretch. For the same time period, Weathers has made two starts, one for the Padres and one for the Marlins.
He’s allowed 10 runs in his 8.1 innings across those two starts. He’s allowed two home runs in each of those starts.
That’s not good news for the Marlins who are just a game out of the final Wild Card spot. Miami needs to win this series just as much as the Padres do and the Marlins actually still have some hope of finding their way into the postseason.
On the other hand, Michael Wacha, one of the pitchers who took a spot in San Diego’s rotation ahead of the once promising prospect, Weathers.
Wacha is having a completely resurgent season and last time out he went five scoreless. However, Wacha is going to be exposed at some point this year. He has a 3.65 FIP and an xERA of 4.09. Wacha has a 37th percentile strikeout rate and 40th percentile xSLG.
That could point to the over, but over the past week, the Padres and Marlins both have an OPS just barely over .700, so I’m not anxious to back them to score some runs. The Padres are only 49-48 as a favorite this year and are 45-52 on the run line as a favorite, meanwhile, the Marlins are 37-34 on the run line as an underdog.
San Diego has been overvalued all year and Miami has been a surprise, the Marlins are the better team by record and getting a run and a half and close to even odds is a good bet.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
