MLB odds, picks, predictions: Why Yankees are worth a bet to win AL East

The 2023 MLB season hasn’t gone exactly according to plan for the New York Yankees, who entered Friday 9¹/₂ games out of first place in the AL East.

But with some reinforcements on the way and some recent success at the plate, I think there’s plenty of hope that they can capture that much-anticipated division crown.

Let’s start with the most recent bit of good news for the Yankees, which is Harrison Bader’s imminent return.

The center fielder will be playing in two more rehab games this weekend and is expected to return Tuesday.

The numbers suggest he will provide a lift to the Yankees when he does come back.

Not only has the 29-year-old once again ranked inside the top 10 in arm strength and defensive outs above average, but also he has put together an .806 OPS in 95 plate appearances.

That has culminated in an 18-8 record when he has been on the field.

Bader’s return to the lineup in the coming days, less than three weeks weeks after Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson were activated off the injured list, will be a huge relief to an offense that has been scrambling to find answers all season long.

For months, the Yankees had no choice but to hand Oswaldo Cabrera and his 51 OPS+ regular at-bats.

They’ve started the likes of Franchy Cordero, Willie Calhoun and Billy McKinney in the outfield as well.

When Bader returns, it seems the days of the Yankees starting Triple-A talent will be nearing an end, though Aaron Judge is still nursing a toe injury.

The lineup with Bader back should look more like a major league caliber offense even before Judge returns.

When you consider the pitching staff entered Friday ranked fourth in baseball with a 3.59 ERA, it seems things might finally start to come together for the Yankees now that they’re getting healthier.

Tommy Kahnle has been a much-needed addition to the back end of the bullpen, Ian Hamilton will soon return, and even Carlos Rodon is now throwing to hitters as he recovers from an elbow injury.

There’s plenty of optimism for the Yankees, who have pitched well and rank third in barrels per plate appearance and eighth in expected slugging percentage.

What about their competition in the division?

The Rays have looked like world-beaters this year, but the 11-point difference between their batting average and their expected batting average according to Statcast is among the largest in the game.

On top of that, their pitching has fallen off just a hair with a 4.23 FIP in the last 30 days.

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The Orioles’ bullpen has also started to regress, pitching to a 4.26 ERA in the last 30 days.

And while its offense has been strong, Baltimore still trails the Yankees in expected slugging and in barrels and hard-hit balls.

It’s still mid-June, and plenty can go wrong for the Rays.

We’ve already seen their run of dominance slow a bit with some stunning losses in Oakland this week and a dry spell in May.

The Yankees can easily make up 9¹/₂ games in a couple of months, especially with an influx of helpful players coming off the injured list.

There’s absolutely value in taking this team to win the division at +950 (FanDuel).