MLB odds: Rays-Royals prediction, odds, and pick

Here are the Rays-Royals MLB odds,

MLB Odds: Rays-Royals Odds

Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+130)

Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-156)

Over: 9 (-120)

Under: 9 (-102)

Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread

Clearly, the Rays have been the more successful and consistent team this season. The question Tampa Bay backers must ask themselves is how confident they feel in them covering a one-and-a-half run spread. If their bats perform the way they have been lately, there’s a good chance for them to do so.

The Rays are in the midst of one of their better offensive stretches of the season. While they rank 19th in the MLB in run production for the year, their 89 runs scored this month are tied for the fifth-most in baseball. They also rank third in OPS and batting average during this stretch.

In addition to the optimism generated by Tampa Bay’s bats, Royals starting pitcher Brad Keller has been up and down throughout his 2022 campaign. The right-hander has a 2.41 ERA in three July starts and has given up one run or less in three of his last six outings. Surrounding this success has been an array of forgettable performances, though, with at least four runs allowed in seven of his last 12 starts. This could set the stage for even greater success for third baseman Yandy Diaz, whose .386 batting average in July is the second-best in the AL.

Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread

When a team is struggling as much as the Royals have this season, bright spots can be tough to find. Despite his overall inconsistency, Keller’s recent outings are one source of positivity. His 1.74 ERA through his first five starts of 2022 shows that he is capable of sustaining the level of success he’s experienced in July. It also is an encouraging sign that he’s moved past the struggles that allowed his ERA to balloon as high as 4.74, with a three-hit, one-run outing in a win over the Detroit Tigers last week dropping this number below 4.00 for the first time since June 1.

In addition to Keller being more reliable as of late, right-handing pitching has been a source of struggles for Tampa Bay. The Rays rank in the bottom eight of the MLB in OPS, strikeouts batting average against righties. Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen has been more consistent overall for the year, boasting an impressive 3.22 ERA. His issues away from Tropicana Field have been notable, however, with a 2-3 record and 4.50 ERA in road games this season. Keller, meanwhile, has a 3.48 ERA at Kauffman Stadium in 2022.

The Royals have been average-to-below average for most of the year at the plate, but their recent performance has hinted at a possible turnaround. They’re 13th in the MLB in OPS, sixth in batting average, and 10th in runs scored during July. In comparison, they rank 23rd in OPS, 14th in batting average, and 27th in runs scored for the season. Infielders Hunter Dozier and Whit Merrifield have helped spur this improvement, ranking third and fourth in the AL, respectively, with OPS figures above 1.000 in July.

Final Rays-Royals Prediction & Pick

Despite one team being 10 games above .500 and the other sitting 20 games below this threshold, the Rays and Royals aren’t too far apart in a handful of statistical categories. One significant difference, though, is relief pitching. The Royals have the worst bullpen ERA in the American League at 4.63, compared to the Rays, whose relievers rank fifth with a 3.40 ERA. Keller has gone past six innings only twice in his last nine starts, meaning the Kansas City bullpen will likely be called upon to play a sizable role — something that’s led to disaster on numerous occasions this year.

Rasmussen’s woes on the road are a reason to worry, especially with temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-low 90s at first pitch. However, with the Royals losing their last three games by a combined total of 10 runs, and a 21-41 record against teams above .500, there appears to be some value in taking the Rays at -1.5 (+130).

Final Rays-Royals Prediction & Pick: Rays -1.5 (+130)