MLB Opening Day Favorites: Which Games Should You Bet?

After a cold winter with barely any blockbuster deals (outside of Shohei Ohtani changing teams), baseball returns on March 28 with all 30 teams in action for Opening Day. 

With all 30 teams in action, there are 30 different moneyline bets available across the 15-game slate. Some games look like even matchups on paper, while others appear more lopsided based on the early odds.

Are the heavy favorites worth betting on? Let’s look at every game that features a team with -180 odds or shorter on the moneyline.

Odds from BetMGM and are subject to change.

Los Angeles Angels (+170) at Baltimore Orioles (-210)

Last season, the Baltimore Orioles surprised all of baseball by winning 101 games and the AL East. They could be even better this year, especially after trading for 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes and signing All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel in the offseason.

As for the Los Angeles Angels, they took a major step back after losing Ohtani in free agency. They still have Mike Trout and added complementary players like outfielder Aaron Hicks and reliever Robert Stephenson, but they’ve done little to fill the Ohtani-sized void in the middle of their lineup and rotation.

Speaking of Ohtani, the Angels will have a new Opening Day starter after giving him the last two assignments. New manager Ron Washington has been mum on the topic, not wanting to tip his hand. Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning or Patrick Sandoval will likely get the nod, all of whom finished 2023 with an ERA over four. 

Burnes will get the start for the Orioles in his Baltimore debut. Burnes has earned three straight All-Star selections and four consecutive top-10 Cy Young finishes, but he took the loss last Opening Day after giving up four runs in five innings. 

Even so, it’s worth backing the Orioles at home here. They’re the better team and have the upper hand on the mound and in the batter’s box. It’s going to be another long season for Trout.

St. Louis Cardinals (+165) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)

This technically won’t be Opening Day for the Los Angeles Dodgers because of their series against the San Diego Padres in Korea, but it’s still the Dodgers’ home opener. And what an opener it will be thanks to their acquisitions of Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Tyler Glasnow and Yamamoto will pitch in Korea on March 20-21, but one of them could start this game as well after getting a full week off. Based on Los Angeles’ short odds, the sportsbooks seem to be banking on it.

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to put last year’s 71-91 debacle in the rearview mirror. Offseason acquisition Sonny Gray was supposed to start Opening Day, but his status for the opener is now in jeopardy due to a hamstring strain. 

Gray threw a 15-pitch bullpen on March 11, so he seems to be trending in the right direction. If he can’t go, then Miles Mikolas or Kyle Gibson could get the nod.

Although there’s value in fading the Dodgers this year, it’s tough not to back them at home on Opening Day. They’ll have an ace on the mound and a lineup anchored by three former MVPs in Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.

Los Angeles’ roster isn’t perfect, but Opening Day should be a joyous affair at Dodger Stadium.

Cleveland Guardians (-185) at Oakland Athletics (+150)

Despite not doing much this offseason, the Cleveland Guardians open the season as big road favorites against an Oakland A’s team that lost 112 games last year – most in baseball.

Former AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber should get the start for the Guardians barring a last-minute trade or injury. Bieber’s made four straight Opening Day starts for Cleveland, including last year when he threw six scoreless innings against the Seattle Mariners.

JP Sears or Paul Blackburn will likely get the start in what could be the Athletics’ last Opening Day in Oakland before they move to Las Vegas. Neither pitcher inspires much confidence, however, as both posted an ERA well over four last year.

Both of these teams ranked bottom-five in scoring last year and didn’t do much to improve on that front.

The A’s’ “big” acquisitions were signing journeymen like Miguel Andújar and Abraham Toro, while the Guardians’ main acquisition was signing catcher Austin Hedges. Cleveland’s banking on one of its numerous middle-infield prospects to prove something. 

This is the Opening Day equivalent of a rock fight that will have the additional emotional tie of new Guardians manager Stephen Vogt making his managerial debut against his old team. Back Vogt to make a good first impression with his new squad.

Boston Red Sox (+155) at Seattle Mariners (-190)

After trading away Chris Sale in the offseason, the Boston Red Sox were prepared to start Lucas Giolito on Opening Day. However, he suffered a partial UCL tear that will likely keep him out for all of 2024.

Now, the Red Sox will likely turn to promising young starter Brayan Bello, who just signed a six-year contract extension. The 24-year-old Bello is entering his third big-league season after going 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA last year.

There’s still a chance Boston could sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, but the Red Sox haven’t signed a big-name starting pitcher in years. They didn’t add much to their lineup this offseason, either, acquiring Vaughn Grissom and Tyler O’Neill but losing Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall and Justin Turner. 

The Seattle Mariners missed the playoffs by only one game last year and have a better pitching staff than Boston. They’ll likely start three-time All-Star Luis Castillo, who fired six innings of one-hit ball last Opening Day.

Still, we think there’s value in backing Boston here. O’Neill has launched a home run on four straight Opening Days, and the Red Sox are used to playing in cold weather. The Mariners are a better team, but Boston has enough talent to steal this game on the road.

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