NFL Best Bets Week 14: Taking the Ravens and Raiders, plus a total in Chicago

It’s always nice to bet an under in an NFL game where both teams look like they spent no time game-planning on defense, but that’s exactly what happened between the Seahawks and Cowboys on Thursday night. So that was a quick loser, and, I guess, a preview for what the weekend would bring. My NFL Projection Model has hit a little bit of a snag these last few weeks — hey Broncos, thanks for teasing me and not covering despite having a chance to win with a -3 turnover margin — but the process has been good and I’m confident we can end the season strong. Or, you know, we won’t end the season strong because it’s the NFL and about two-thirds of the league has below-average quarterback play and every game seems to be a crapshoot.

Last week’s record: 1-3, -2.35 units

Season record: 32-35, -4.25 units, -6.0% ROI

A smaller card to start this week but a few games have some weather concerns that I’m going to have to wait until later in the week to get involved so stay tuned for any possible added plays. Best of luck to us!

NFL Week 14 Best Bets

Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.

Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.

All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds from BetMGM and locked when the pick was made. 

Baltimore Ravens -7 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Laying points with the Ravens is terrifying but my number is closer to 8 here so I can’t pass up the current price. The Rams final score against the Browns looked nice, but that game was pretty close until the final minutes so I think we are getting a little bit of an overrated Rams squad heading into this week. Another thing that I like about this matchup is that I’m not sure Cooper Kupp is 100 percent or at least he’s not playing to the level that we are used to. I think the Ravens are stout enough on defense to slow down this Rams’ attack and cover.

Worst price to bet: Ravens -7 (-110)

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears over 43 (-110)

This number is likely to go up as the forecast has been getting better, and if we end up without a crazy wind or precipitation game, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this number to be 44 come Sunday. When these teams met a few weeks ago, this total was in the high 40’s so I think this is a good bit of value if we don’t get crushed by weather.

Worst line to bet: Over 43 (-110)

Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-110) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Listen, if you want to lay three points with this Vikings team and Josh Dobbs, go for it but I can’t see how they’re getting this much respect in the market. Sure, Justin Jefferson is going to be back, and that’s a significant upgrade, but this is a steep price for a team with Dobbs and a “meh” defense at best. One advantage I see here is that Aidan O’Connell has done well against zone coverages in his short NFL career, and the Vikings are 25th in man-defense looks this year. If O’Connell can avoid turnovers, he should be able to sustain some drives and keep this game close.

Worst line to bet: Raiders +3 (-110)