NFL Betting Trends to Know for the Divisional Round: Will the Jaguars Make Underdog History?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the precipice of making NFL history if they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs in their Divisional Round matchup on Saturday. We dive into that and more in our list of Divisional Round trends to know in the NFL.

One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand.

For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.

Here are our top NFL trends to know for Wild Card Weekend (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Top NFL Betting Trends for the Divisional Round

Jaguars (+340 ML) vs. Chiefs

The Jaguars would set an NFL record for outright wins by an underdog in a single season if they can beat the Chiefs.

Since 1966, four teams (1981 Giants, 1981 49ers, 2001 Patriots, 2015 Washington) have won eight games (including playoffs) as underdogs in a single season. Jacksonville’s comeback victory over the Los Angeles Chargers was not only the third-largest comeback victory in playoff history (27 points) but also the Jaguars’ eighth outright win as underdogs this season. For an extra historical tidbit, the 1981 49ers and 2001 Patriots won the Super Bowl in those years as record ‘dogs. And from an ATS perspective, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson is now 6-0 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs, one of two undefeated ATS coaches with a minimum of four playoff games under their belt.

Home teams are 37-15 SU and 26-25-1 ATS in the Divisional Round.

Last year was an anomaly based on the trends in the Divisional Round, as three of the four road teams won outright. In the previous four seasons, at least three of the four home teams advanced out of the Divisional Round. And in the last ten seasons before 2022, hosts swept two years (2016, 2019) and split in 2017. Home teams went 31-9 SU (78%) in the other seven years.

Before last year, road teams last held the edge in the Divisional Round in 2009. Home teams are 15-13-1 ATS in the previous six years. In addition, outright winners are 33-10-1 ATS in the last 44 divisional playoff games.

No. 2 seeds have performed better both SU and ATS than No. 1 seeds recently.

Since 2004, No. 1 seeds are 25-13 SU and 13-24-1 ATS in the Divisional Round, while No. 2 seeds are 25-11 SU and 20-16 ATS over the last 18 playoffs.

The No. 1 seed Philadelphia Eagles face the No. 6 seed New York Giants. No. 1 seeds playing No. 6 seeds are 11-7 SU and 5-12-1 ATS since 2006. Currently, the Chiefs (-8.5) and Eagles (-7.5) are bigger than touchdown favorites. Keep an eye on those lines, as No. 1 seeds that are favorites by seven or fewer points are 4-12-1 ATS. If Kansas City’s line were to creep up to -10 or higher, double-digit favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the Divisional Round.

And also, with regards to the Chiefs and Eagles, returning playoff teams from the prior season hosting teams in the Divisional Round that were not in the playoffs last year are 12-9 SU and 6-15 ATS in the previous 21 games as single-digit favorites. Again, that trend applies to both teams, as neither the Jaguars nor the Giants made the playoffs last year.

Chiefs (-425 ML) vs. the Jaguars, Eagles (-340 ML) vs. the Giants

Home teams that won at least four more games than their opponents during the regular season are 14-3 SU and 9-8 ATS since 2005.

In addition to this trend, home teams that won 13+ games in the regular season are 23-16 SU and 14-25 ATS in the Divisional Round since 2006. Thus, this latest trend also applies to the Bills (13-3) and 49ers (13-4) this week.

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