NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 4: Commanders Could Surprise Eagles Again

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28 September 2023

NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 4: Commanders Could Surprise Eagles Again

After a blowout loss, the Washington Commanders make it to our list of top NFL upset picks for Week 4, determined by the best NFL odds.

Last week served as a reminder that anything can happen in the NFL, with the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals all winning outright as moneyline underdogs at +300 or higher.

Who will deliver this week’s shockers as part of our NFL predictions for Week 4? To round out your picks, also look toward our NFL Week 4 parlay picks and NFL Week 4 player props.

Here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 4 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a1-to-5-star scale).

NFLupset picks: Week 4

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NFL upsetpredictions

Washington Commanders ML vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+330 viaFanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Washington is coming off a humiliating 34-point lossat home, while the Eagles just played their best game of the season on MondayNight Football. The situational spots alone are enough to consider theCommanders as a top upset pick for Week 4, but there are other reasons to likeWashington, as well.

First, Washington's 37-3 loss to Buffalo wasn'tquite as bad as the final score would indicate, as the Commanders were stillwithin two scores of the Bills in the fourth quarter before having to abandon aproductive running game as the clock dwindled down. Washington also lost theturnover battle 5-0, something that almost certainly won't happen this week.

Second, the Commanders have been a dangerous roaddog in recent years, including ending the Steelers' hopes of an unbeaten seasonin 2020 (Pittsburgh was 11-0 at the time) and beating the Eagles 32-21 on thisvery field a year ago. The Commanders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven roadgames, 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight as underdogs, and 4-1-1 ATS in their lastsix visits to Philadelphia.

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With the Eagles on a short week and Jalen Hurtsstill not quite looking like himself, the potential is there for the Commandersto surprise. If you agree, make sure to check out the latest price at FanDuel,which offers +330, 20 cents better than most of our other best sports betting apps.

Carolina Panthers ML vs. Minnesota Vikings (+180 viaDraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Bettors have been eager to back the Vikings in thisbattle of winless teams, moving Minnesota out to -4 and -200 on the moneyline at most of our best sports betting sites. But what have the Vikings done to merit beingsignificant road chalk here?

Sure, each of the Vikes' first three losses hascome by a narrow margin, but regression in close games was certainly expectedafter the team went an NFL-record 11-0 in one-score contests last year.

After losing last week's game on a goal-lineinterception in the dying seconds, morale can't be high for a Minnesota teamthat will be three wins behind either the Packers or Lions for first place inthe NFC North when this game kicks off (barring a tie in the Green Bay/Detroitgame Thursday night.) The defense has also been awful against both the run andthe pass, allowing 259 rushing yards two weeks ago and then getting torched for454 through the air last week by the Chargers.

Unlike the Vikings, Carolina wasn't expected to bein the playoff mix this season, so an 0-3 start shouldn't be as discouraging tothe Panthers. If anything, they should be optimistic about their chances of theupset after hanging tough last week in Seattle, trailing 22-20 in the fourthquarter before the Seahawks pulled away for a 37-27 win.

If startingquarterback Bryce Young can’t play for the second straight week, the offensemight also be better with backup Andy Dalton, who threw for 367 yards againstthe Hawks.

Baltimore Ravens ML vs.Cleveland Browns (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Two weeks ago, the injury-depleted Ravens went intoCincinnati as field-goal underdogs and pulled off an outright win over adivision rival. That's the spot Baltimore finds itself in once again this week, as it visits the Browns with the AFC North lead on the line, and we shouldn'tbe surprised if history repeats itself.

The absence of six players who started opening daycaught up with Baltimore in last week's 22-19 overtime loss to the Colts, agame the Ravens still would have won if they hadn't mismanaged the clock latein regulation.

Baltimore excels at bouncing back from losses under coach JimHarbaugh, winning each of its last five in that situation when Lamar Jackson isin the lineup. Speaking of Jackson, he's still playing at the top of his game,running for 101 yards and two touchdowns last week while completing 71% of histhrows.

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Cleveland was just a 3.5-point favorite last weekagainst Tennessee, as bettors weren't sure how the Browns could overcome theloss of Nick Chubb. The Brownies responded with a 27-3 blowout of the Titans,but much of that offensive success was taking advantage of an awful Tennesseesecondary.

Cleveland's running game struggled without Chubb, as feature backJerome Ford managed just 18 yards on 10 carries, and they'll miss that abilityto move the ball on the ground against Baltimore.

At this underdog price, we'llhappily back the Ravens to win for the 12th time in their last 16 visits toCleveland.

NFLupset picks made 09/28/2023 at 9:16 a.m. ET.