NFL Week 10, And Looking For Value In Super Bowl Betting

The Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles are the only two teams that look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Eagles have the longest odds at +325, while the Bills are +300. Every other NFL team is a +1200 longshot to win the Superbowl. The following are five longshots picks to the win it. They are ordered by mental calculus. It takes into account what I think their actual chances are, mixed with how good the odds are.

The New York Jets are the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Their defense is ranked 7th in DVOA.

Cincinnati Bengals are the 4th favorite team in NFL betting at BetMGM.

The San Francisco 49ers are 9th in DVOA and have a top-flight defense. The offense is dripping with playmakers.

Dallas Cowboys are the No. 1 ranked team by DVOA in the league. If they beat the Eagles at home in late December, expect the Cowboys train to leave the station.

The Seattle Seahawks are the second-best team in the NFC. The narrative that the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs are only teams in contention for the Super Bowl is almost certainly flawed.

The parlay of the week is a +1000 or more parlaying. The parling includes the Seahawks getting 2.5 points in Munich against the Buccaneers, the Giants giving 4. 5 points to the Texans at home, Dolphins giving four points at Browns, and the Bears giving 2 5 to Lions at at their home.

The three-team teaser is bound to lose. I lost this again. My record is an abysmal 1-8.

FanDuel has a fishy line for the game between the Cowboys and the Packers. The Cowboys defense is the best in the league.

I didn't win the DraftKings Milly Maker, but I had a good week.

DraftKings has a properly priced slate this week. The only way to make tournament lineups work is to go two-tight end, jam in Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, hope Justin Fields keeps on putting up monster games, and throw a few prayers at wideout in the $5-$6.5K range.

NFL Week 10 is on Sunday. I'm looking for value in Super Bowl betting.