NFL Week 11 predictions: Picks against spread for every game

The Bills fired their offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, after Monday night’s 24-22 loss to the Broncos. That game provided an interesting set of stats as the Bills turned the ball over four times (two interceptions and two fumbles) and possessed it for only 22 minutes, 39 seconds. Yet, they outgained Denver 369-300 and scored two touchdowns.

On Sunday, Buffalo plays host to a Jets team that hasn’t scored a single offensive touchdown since the first quarter of the Giants game on Oct. 29. That’s so long ago that NFL Films’ clip of Zach Wilson’s checkdown to Breece Hall for a 50-yard score probably looks as rustic as those old Joe Namath-to-Don Maynard hookups. 

The Jets are coming off TD-less losses to the Chargers and Raiders, two teams that were near the very bottom of the NFL in the defensive rankings heading into those games.

Unlike the Bills, who canned Dorsey, Robert Saleh remained steadfast in his support of Nathaniel Hackett as the play-caller and Wilson as the starting quarterback. It’s hard to see that Saleh had any better options, unless you want to give Aaron Rodgers a shot calling the plays (TV cameras caught him disagreeing with one play call last week). 

One thing I do like is that the Jets had a players-only meeting during the week. This shows that they are taking responsibility for what’s happening on the field, that pre-snap penalties and undisciplined personal fouls are on them and not the coaches. 

When the teams met on opening night, the Jets kept battling after Rodgers’ devastating Achilles injury. Their defense forced four turnovers and they won it in overtime on Xavier Gipson’s punt return. 

What we have here are two desperate teams with lots of problems. If the Bills play their best game, they’ll blow the Jets out of Orchard Park. But it’s been a long while since they’ve played that kind of game. Their last six results have seen four losses and wins by five vs. the Giants (with the Giants at the 1 for the win) and by six over the Buccaneers. 

So, with one hand covering my eyes …

The pick: Jets +7. 

New York Giants (+9.5) over COMMANDERS

There was 2:14 to go last week after the Cowboys scored their pile-on seventh touchdown for a 49-10 lead over the Giants. But Brian Daboll treated that final drive like a potential game-winner, calling all three of his timeouts to leave enough time for Tommy DeVito to throw a 2-yard touchdown pass to Sterling Shepard. Call it proof of concept that DeVito can indeed lead the Giants down the field and get the ball into the end zone. Even if the Giants’ front office has an inkling of tanking for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, the players don’t care about that.

More than anything, this pick is a fade of the Commanders at this number. The margins in their four wins have been four, two, eight and three — an average of 4.25 points. They’d have to more than double that here.

Sam Howell has topped 300 yards passing in each of his last three games, but before that on Oct. 22 at MetLife, he was sacked six times in a 14-7 Giants win. And in the past 10 meetings, the Giants are 7-2-1 outright against the Redskins-Washington Football Team-Commanders.

DETROIT LIONS (-7.5) over Chicago Bears

The line dropped from 10 to 7.5 after it was announced Justin Fields would start for the Bears. Even though that’s still a lot, I’m not sure Fields and his 6-25 career record are worth the honor. Lions have five double-digit wins this season and this shapes up as a great day for Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the other Detroit playmakers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

The 6-3 Browns are the No. 6 seed in the AFC, ranked behind the No. 5 Steelers, who have the same record. This line was Cleveland -4 before the news of Deshaun Watson being out for the season. Kevin Stefanski made a somewhat surprising decision to go with Dorian Thompson-Robinson instead of P.J. Walker. Walker was 1-1 in his games, averaging almost 30 ppg, while Thompson-Robinson lost his start 28-3 to the Ravens.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) over PACKERS

The Chargers catch a break with the weather as it could be a lot worse than sunny and 47 degrees at Lambeau in mid-November. Keenan Allen’s shoulder injury status is concerning but the Packers have some key players with injury questions as well. Taking the better team at a fair price.

Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Most of the time when you see a number like this, the underdog team is one of the dregs on the league. Not the case here, as the Raiders are 5-5 and have won four of their last six and both games under new coach Antonio Pierce. The Dolphins have four blowout wins including the 70-20 destruction of the Broncos. They’re capable of pulling away here at home. I just like this head start for Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Some might point to the Cowboys’ Week 3 loss in Arizona, but that’s the exception that proves the rule this season as Dallas has destroyed all of the other bad teams it has faced. 

Tennessee Titans (+6.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This is the kind of point-spread spot where I like to back Mike Vrabel and the Titans. After a strong first game, Will Levis has had two rough ones in losses, but I’m figuring the learning curve might kick in a little against a middle-of-the-pack Jaguars defense.

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

C.J. Stroud is starting to put up astronomical numbers (470 and 356 passing yards the past two weeks), yet the Texans are still playing a lot of close games. The last three weeks, the final margins were two, two and three points. Willing to take more than a field goal with Kyler Murray.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-11.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This might be a bit of a contradiction of the Dolphins-Raiders pick, because the Bucs aren’t a total bottom feeder. It’s just an acknowledgment that the Niners may have flipped when they came off the bye and walloped the Jaguars 34-3.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (+1) over Seattle Seahawks

Matthew Stafford should be back for this one after missing last week with a thumb injury. It’s been a rough season for the Rams but they did win the opener 30-13 in Seattle, so maybe there’s something good lying within these individual matchups.

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Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Vikings have won five in a row, the last two with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Happy to grab a few against a Denver team has a short week and had a long flight after a last-second Monday night win.

Monday

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

It’s the Andy Reid Bowl and a rematch of February’s Super Bowl. I had the Eagles in that one and was one of the many who thought I lost my pick on that late penalty. But that Eagles offense was at the height of its powers and this season it hasn’t been nearly the same thing. Happy to side with Reid and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce off the bye that followed a nice win over the Dolphins in Germany.

Best bets: Lions, Raiders, Vikings
Lock of the week: Lions (Locks are 3-7 in 2023)
Last week: 10-3-1 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
Thursday: Ravens (W)