NFL Week 5 picks against spread and over/under total to bet

When it comes to betting against the spread (ATS), there's going to be ups and downs throughout the 18-week season.

And last week couldn't have gone any worse.

I went completely defeated with all six of my picks. Whether it was Browns' QB Deshaun Watson being ruled out not long before kickoff, Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes sliding to get a first down instead of running in for a touchdown so they don't cover, or just being on the wrong side with the Panthers and Steelers, it was a brutal Week 4.

Regardless, we move onward and upward to this weekend with a handful of intriguing matchups throughout the NFL.

Here's my record through Week 4:

2023 record: 8-16

Against the spread: 6-14

Bonus Bets: 2-2

Here are my five teams to bet on against the spread for Week 5, plus one bonus over/under to place a bet on this weekend.

Miami Dolphins (-10.5) vs. New York Giants

We start down in South Beach with a matchup of two teams who played completely different football in the month of September.

Entering Week 5, the Giants own the worst point differential (-76) and have only scored 46 points this season.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been arguably the best offense in football, scoring 70 points in Week 3 versus the Broncos and are averaging a league-high 37.5 points per game in 2023.

There's positive news for the Giants as RB Saquon Barkley took part in team drills on Wednesday afternoon. However, left tackle Andrew Thomas did not practice as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury that's kept him out the past three games.

This is the largest spread of the weekend but I'm comfortable laying the points with the Dolphins until the Giants can show they keep it competitive versus the best teams in football.

The best available price for the Dolphins' -10.5 is at -110 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Houston Texans (+2) vs. Atlanta Falcons

The first few weeks I disrespected the Texans by picking against them multiple times regardless of at home or on the road.

Now it's time to give them their flowers.

2023 second overall pick QB C.J. Stroud has exceeded all expectations so far as he's now the odds-on-favorite with consensus odds of +175 (Bet $100 to win $175) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Despite an 0-2 start, the Texans have won back-to-back games by 20+ points with the latest a 30-6 thrashing against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

While the Falcons have been able to get the ball moving with fellow rookie RB Bijan Robinson, it's been a struggle for the rest of the offense. The team has only scored 13 points over their past two games and QB Desmond Ridder has been sacked 16 times, the fourth most in football.

All in all, I'm still siding with taking points with the Texans here.

Bet on the Texans now at +2 (-110) as some sportsbooks have already started to moving the line to +1.5.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Speaking of disrespected teams, the Arizona Cardinals also have to be near the top of the list.

Despite the 35-16 loss last weekend against the San Francisco 49ers and their current 1-3 record, the Cardinals have fought much harder than anyone expected coming into the season.

On the other side, the Bengals have been one of the bigger disappointments. After back-to-back double-digit wins seasons and consecutive AFC Championship appearances, it's been an ugly 1-3 start in Cincinnati. Between the combination of QB Joe Burrow still not fully recovered from his offseason calf injury and an offensive line playing poorly in front of him, the team has scored 20+ points just once this season.

The Bengals could get out of the funk this weekend but I'm riding with the Cardinals as a home underdog and would even place a small bet on them to win at +140 (Bet $100 to win $140).

Place a wager on the Cardinals at +3 (-110) on a handful of sportsbooks.

Los Angeles Rams (+5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Rams blew a 23-8 fourth quarter lead last weekend but were able to escape Indianapolis with a 28-23 overtime victory over the Colts in Week 4.

QB Matthew Stafford's new favorite target, rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua, has taken the league by storm. The 2023 fifth-round-pick already has 39 receptions for 501 yards, the most by a player in his first career four games in NFL history. They also may be getting back superstar wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who returned to practice Wednesday after missing the first month of the season.

While the Eagles are one of two undefeated teams remaining, they've still yet to play a complete game this season. They needed overtime at home versus the Washington Commanders in Week 4.

The big question will be the health of Stafford. The 35-year-old is expected to play this weekend after suffering a hip bruise and visibly limping following the Rams' win.

This could be the game where the Eagles' defensive line dominates but I expect the Rams to at least cover this near touchdown spread.

While most sportsbooks have the Rams at +4 or +4.5, bet on them now at +5 on PointsBet at -110.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

We end Week 5 on Sunday Night Football in the Bay Area.

Yes, the Cowboys are coming off a dominant 38-3 victory over the New England Patriots. However, the 49ers are a different beast.

San Francisco has scored 30+ points in every single game. RB Christian McCaffrey was unstoppable last week, recording 177 total yards and four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving).

All three of the Cowboys' wins have been blowouts by 20+ points, not needing the team to play a full 48 minutes.

So how do they fare on the road against arguably the most complete team in football?

I expect it'll be competitive but eventually the 49ers pull away and cover.

DraftKings and BetRivers have the best available price for the 49ers' -3.5 at -108.

Bonus bet: New Orleans Saints/New England Patriots UNDER 40 points

Two offenses that have struggled the most this season are by far the Saints and Patriots.

Neither team has scored 21 points and both rank 27th or worse in points per game this season. Even more so, the Saints and Patriots have combined to go under in seven of eight contests in 2023.

Despite being the second lowest total on the board, I'd still wager on there being 40 or fewer points scored in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon.

Most sportsbooks across the board have the Saints-Patriots total of 40 points at the price of -110.