Online Betting Will Push Super Bowl LVIII Audience To New Record

The NFL has already had an amazing broadcast season, accounting for 93 of the 100 most watched television programs and 45 of the top 100 most watched primetime slots in 2023, including the postseason. Television ratings during the regular season averaged 17.9 million viewers across the league’s various broadcast partners (a figure that includes streaming), up 7% from last season and the highest average since 2015. Even the Dolphins-Chiefs AFC Wild Card Game on Peacock finished with a 9.2 rating and 22.86 million viewers (including local over-the-air simulcasts on NBC affiliates in home markets Kansas City and Miami.

Last year, Super Bowl LVII between the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Fox scored a record 115 million viewers. Super Bowl LVIII on CBS between the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers should easily top that thanks to online betting. It’s a big reason why the average cost of a 30-second ad during the game will be $7 million, nearly 8% more than last year.

According to research from the American Gaming Association (AGA), a record 68 million American adults (or 26% of the adult population) plan to bet on Super Bowl LVIII, marking a +35% increase from last year. Those 68 million bettors are expected to wager $23.1 billion, up +44% from $16 billion last year. By medium, nearly half (46%) of the Super Bowl LVIII bettors are expected to place bets online, well ahead of the 15% for retail sportsbooks (i.e., physical, in-person betting). Crucially, among those who plan to bet online, 28.7 million adults (or 11% of the US adult population) plan to place wagers using a legal U.S. online sportsbook.

Another way to play the Big Game are the stocks of the bookmakers. A report by MoffettNathanson published today notes through September of this year, DraftKings made meaningful strides in growing its share of online sports betting (OSB) gross gaming revenues at the expense of FanDuel as well as the long tail of other operators. In September, the first month of the NFL season, DraftKings’ share reached 38%. Yet, during the three months of the fourth quarter, FanDuel came back in a meaningful way.

Then in November, Penn rolled out ESPN Bet (which pulled 8% market share in its first month before ticking down to 6%), increasing the competitive intensity of the industry.

Alas, like the odds on the Super Bowl, top bookmakers FanDuel and DraftKings are also very close.