Oregon Football: Pac-12 championship odds change according to ESPN FPI
One of the best tools that college football fans have at their disposal each and every season is the ESPN Football Power Index. For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance, on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.”
Virtually, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
Following the end of the spring football season across the nation, ESPN’s FPI gave a percent chance for each team in the Pac-12 conference to become bowl eligible, and ultimately win the conference. However, in the fast few months with the addition of several new transfers for different teams, those odds have changed.
Fans of the Oregon Ducks should be happy. Take a look at where ESPN now projects each Pac-12 team will finish up in 2023.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 0.0%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 6.4%
ESPN FPI: -7.1
National FPI Rank: 95th
Analysis: It’s no surprise that the Colorado Buffaloes remain at the bottom of the list in the Pac-12. While Deion Sanders has brought some nice talent in at the top of the roster, there is a severe lack of depth and cohesion in Boulder.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 0.1%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 26.3%
ESPN FPI: -2.6
National FPI Rank: 71st
Analysis: Stanford has been impressive on the recruiting trail as of late, but that won’t help them in 2023 at all, with one of the thinnest and least talented rosters in the conference.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 0.3
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 38.4%
ESPN FPI: -0.4
National FPI Rank: 64th
Analysis: Kenny Dillingham may be able to get the ball rolling offensively in year one with the Sun Devils, but it will be hard for Arizona State to find a ton of success in a talented Pac-12 conference this year.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 0.4%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 50.6%
ESPN FPI: -0.2
National FPI Rank: 62nd
Analysis: Washington State’s defense was great last year, but it may be their offense that needs to carry them this year. If QB Cameron Ward can find is footing, there’s a good chance that the Cougars can at least become bowl eligible in 2023.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 0.6%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 51.3%
ESPN FPI: 1.1
National FPI Rank: 59th
Analysis: Offensively, Arizona should be able to hold its own this year. The defense may be a different story, however. ESPN gives them a slightly above-average chance to become bowl eligible this year, but their chances to compete for a conference title are slim to none.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 0.8%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 53.5%
ESPN FPI: 3.3
National FPI Rank: 51st
Analysis: I’m not as high on California as ESPN seems to be this year, but we all appear to agree that while the Golden Bears may make a bowl game, they won’t be competing for the Pac-12 title.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 2.8%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 86.5%
ESPN FPI: 6.4
National FPI Rank: 41st
Analysis: The ceiling for UCLA feels pretty high this season, but the floor also feels pretty low. Depending on how their QB play shapes up, they could find a way to compete for the Pac-12 title. Regardless, they will likely get into the postseason.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 9.1%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 93.8%
ESPN FPI: 10.5
National FPI Rank: 24th
Analysis: I’m not sure what changed over the offseason for ESPN to drop Oregon State down a spot in the Pac-12 odds rankings, now behind Washington, and their odds to make a bowl game slightly dropped as well. If QB DJ Uiagalelei is as advertised, then the Beavers should be just fine.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 8.9%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 85.3%
ESPN FPI: 11.8
National FPI Rank: 21st
Analysis: Washington moved up a spot in the Pac-12 title odds, ahead of Oregon State, but they saw their bowl eligibility odds drop pretty drastically for some reason.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 17.4%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 93.2%
ESPN FPI: 14.9
National FPI Rank: 15th
Analysis: Is it possible that the uncertainty surrounding QB Cam Rising’s injury status is hurting the Utes at all? Utah dropped down a spot behind Oregon in the Pac-12 title odds rankings, and their bowl eligibility odds dropped slightly as well. If Rising is healthy, though, the Utes will be in a good spot.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 18.2%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 95.9%
ESPN FPI: 15.0
National FPI Rank: 13th
Analysis: The Ducks jumped ahead of Utah in the Pac-12 title odds rankings, and they also gained ground on USC in the odds as well. With a whole host of incoming talent via the transfer portal, Oregon should be primed for a conference title run.
Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Title: 41.2%
Bowl Eligibility Probability: 98.6%
ESPN FPI: 19.9
National FPI Rank: 7th
Analysis: No surprise that USC remains at the top of the list with all of the returning talent and incoming talent they have on the roster. However, it is notable that their odds to win the Pac-12 title dropped drastically, as Oreogn makes up ground.
