Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals prediction 10-18-23 NHL Picks

Two teams with contrasting styles, the Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators, are set to collide in a matchup that promises to be a feast for hockey aficionados. The Capitals, sitting at 1-1-0 with two points, are looking to build momentum, while the Senators, with a 2-1-0 record and four points, aim to continue their winning ways. Let's break down what to expect in this contest.

A Deep Dive

The Washington Capitals find themselves at a critical juncture early in the season. Their recent 3-2 shootout victory against the Calgary Flames was a much-needed boost, but it also highlighted areas that require immediate attention. The standout performer was goaltender Darcy Kuemper, who had goals-against average of 1.85 and a save percentage of .950 in his season debut. While these stats are impressive, the Capitals can't rely solely on Kuemper to carry them through the season.

The offensive end is where the Capitals are facing significant challenges. Matthew Phillips has been the only consistent contributor, leading the team in both goals and points with one each. The team ranks 28th in the league in goals scored, a statistic that raises eyebrows given the offensive talent on the roster. The power play unit has been particularly disappointing, failing to convert any opportunities and sitting at a 0.0% success rate. This lack of efficiency on the man advantage is a glaring issue that needs to be addressed, especially when facing a team like the Senators, whose power play has been clicking at 27.3%.

Defensively, the Capitals have been mediocre at best. They rank 10th in goals against, but their penalty kill has been a significant concern. With a success rate of just 62.5%, they find themselves at 30th in the league. The Capitals will need to tighten up their defensive play and improve their special teams if they aim to secure a win against a Senators team that has been effective in both these areas.

Washington Capitals Team Facts

• The Capitals have lost each of their last 12 night games following a win.
• The Capitals have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 12 night games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Capitals have won the third period in seven of their last eight games following a shootout win.
• The 'Over 1.5 Goals Period 1' market has hit in each of the Capitals' last eight games at Canadian Tire Centre.

The Momentum Factor

The Ottawa Senators are a team on the ascent, and their recent form underscores this trajectory. Their 5-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning was a fine example of their strong start to the new season. Brady Tkachuk has been the driving force behind the Senators' attack, leading the team in goals with four and overall points with five. The Senators have found the back of the net 13 times in just three games, highlighting their offensive capabilities.

Special teams have been a strong suit for the Senators. Their power play has been strong, converting at a rate of 27.3%, which could be a game-changer against a Capitals team struggling on the penalty kill. Their penalty kill has been effective, neutralizing 85.7% of their opponents' power plays, a stat that could tilt the game in their favor given the Capitals' struggles on the man advantage. Although the season is still young, the strong stats Ottawa has posted at both ends of the ice appears to be the start of a solid season for them.

In the goaltending department, the Senators have been rotating between Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg. Korpisalo has a goals-against average of 3.53 and a save percentage of .894, while Forsberg has posted a 2.01 GAA and a .905 SV%. While these numbers may not be elite, they are solid enough to give the Senators a fighting chance in any matchup. The Senators will look to exploit the Capitals' weaknesses, particularly on special teams, to continue their strong start to the season. With home-ice advantage and a cohesive unit, the Senators are well-positioned to extend their winning streak.

Ottawa Senators Team Facts

• The home team has won each of the Senators' last nine games.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in each of their last five games against the Capitals.
• The Senators have won the first period in each of their last six games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The 'Over 1.5 Goals Period 1' market has hit in each of the last eight games between the Capitals and Senators at Canadian Tire Centre.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators ranks T2nd in the league for goals per game this season (4.33).
• The Ottawa Senators ranks T8th in the league in power play percentage this season (27.27%).
• The Washington Capitals ranks 30th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (62.50%).
• The Washington Capitals ranks T29th in the league for goals per game this season (1.00).

David's Pick - Ottawa Senators (-139)

The Capitals are a team searching for offense. On the other hand, the Senators are riding a wave of confidence, backed by a potent offense and a solid duo in goal. Darcy Kuemper is a formidable goalie, but he can't single-handedly carry the Capitals to victory. The Senators have the home-ice advantage and a more cohesive unit, making them the safer bet in this matchup. The Capitals' struggles on special teams, coupled with their lack of offensive firepower, indicate that they are still trying to find their best line formation. I expect the Senators to capitalize on these weaknesses and secure a win, further solidifying their position as a team to watch this season.