Our Bettors Guide To MLB's Wild Card Round
The St. Louis Cardinals made their first World Series appearance in 1982. Their speed was what everyone knew them for. Today's teams wouldn't have made it very far in today's MLB postseason. Smaller stadiums, with natural grass, have encouraged teams to try to hit balls over the defense rather than through it. Advances in limiting teams’ running games has made stolen bases largely irrelevant.
The modern winning formula for the postseason is to hit home runs and limit the number of strikeouts. Houston Astros are the exemplar of this formula. They finished with the fourth-most home Runs in the majors and the second-lowest strikeout rate. They also won 106 games and are enjoying a first-round bye. The best pitching staffs for this postseason are those that can prevent homeruns and strike out plenty of batters.
The Astros are the second favorite to win the World Series behind the Dodgers. Houston's overall ‘Stros Index for 2022 is nine. Houston seems a good play at +425 (at DraftKings) to won the world series.
The ‘Stros Index is used to break down each of the four wild card series.
Phillies and Cardinals are playing in the National League Wild Card Round. The Phillies' biggest weakness is preventing home runs. Cardinals have a problem with striking out people out. They got back their best strikeout pitcher, Jack Flaherty, just in time for the postseason. Phillies play all three games at Busch Stadium. The series is expected to be the highest-scoring of the wild card round. It feels like the Cardinals will win if the Phillies make a costly fielding mistake or two.
The play is Phillies +115. The Mets are a team that could have done better at the trade deadline. San Diego signed Juan Soto and Josh Hader at deadline, but they lost Fernando Tatis Jr. to a drug suspension. The Padres finished 21st in hitting home runs and their pitching staff has a tendency to give up long balls.
No. 6 Tampa Bay Rays play No. 3 Cleveland Guardians in the American League Wild Card Round. The Rays have the better record, while the Guardians have a better team efficiency. The Guardians struck out just 18.2% of the time, the lowest in MLB. Tampa doesn't have enough power or overall depth to hang with a good team.
No. 5 Seattle Mariners play No. 4 Toronto Blue Jays in the playoffs. Both teams had issues with their pitching staffs and their offenses. Toronto has the potential to be the best offense in this series. Seattle struck out fewer than all but four teams and hit more home runs than the other teams.
