Packers vs. Lions Predictions, Picks & Odds for Thanksgiving

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20 November 2023

Packers vs. Lions Predictions, Picks & Odds for Thanksgiving

The Detroit Lions continue their annual tradition of hosting the first game on Thanksgiving when the rival Green Bay Packers visit town, and we have you covered with our Packers vs. Lions predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Green Bay Packers (4-6) handed the Los Angeles Chargers their fifth loss by three or fewer points this season with a 23-20 home win in Week 11. Quarterback Jordan Love had his first career game with 300 or more passing yards, and the 23 points were the Packers’ most since Week 2.

The Detroit Lions (8-2) are off to their best start since 1962. The Lions trailed the Chicago Bears 26-14 with 4:15 left in the fourth quarter last week and scored 17 points in the final 2:59, capping the win with running back David Montgomery’s one-yard touchdown run with 0:29 remaining.

Here is our best Packers vs. Lions prediction and our NFL picks for Thanksgiving (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Packers vs. Lions prediction: Thanksgiving

Over 45.5 (-110 via FanDuel, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Detroit has won seven straight games against NFC North opponents, and while it appears an eighth consecutive win is likely against a Green Bay team that has won just one of five road games, the better play is on the Over.

Green Bay was fortunate to allow only 20 points last week, as Los Angeles scored just one touchdown on four red-zone possessions. Meanwhile, it was also the Packers’ first turnover-free game since Week 2, and they have a good shot of making it two straight games without a turnover, as the Lions rank in the bottom nine in takeaways.

Love should also air it out much more than usual, given Green Bay’s backfield injuries. Starting running back Aaron Jones was carted off the field last week, and No. 3 back Emanuel Wilson is dealing with a shoulder injury. That leaves the primary backfield duties to AJ Dillon, and he plodded his way to 61 total yards on 18 touches. However, attacking Detroit through the air was always bound to be the smarter approach, as the Lions entered last week in the top five in percentage of their yards allowed coming on the ground. Love will look to build on his second-half momentum from last week when he completed 12 of 17 passes for 167 yards and two touchdowns.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff also had some fourth-quarter magic last week, completing 11 of 14 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown. Just two weeks ago, Goff’s 10.1 yards per attempt were his highest in three seasons with the Lions, while the team also ran for 200 yards and 6.5 yards per carry. The Lions did a solid job of protecting him last week with only allowing two sacks. Still, even if he is under more pressure against Green Bay, he entered last week ranked in the top 10 in completion percentage and yards per attempt when pressured, with a 12-1 TD-INT ratio, per Sharp Football Analysis.

This is a three-star play, as Detroit should also see some positive regression from the big-play department this week. It had just two plays of 20-plus yards against Chicago after entering the week with a league-leading 49 such plays. In addition, the Over is 7-4 in Detroit’s last 11 Thanksgiving Day games since 2012 and narrowly missed cashing the Over in a 54-point total last year (Detroit lost 28-25 to the Buffalo Bills), which was the fourth-highest O/U on Thanksgiving in the previous 40 years.

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Packers vs. Lions best odds

FanDuel, Caesars, bet365 (-110)

Over bettors have their choice of three of our best sports betting apps (FanDuel, Caesars, or bet365) whose O/U is a half-point lower than their competitors. The last two games with a total of 46 or fewer points between these teams have exceeded the projected total, while the Under has cashed in the previous two meetings when the total has been 48 points or higher.

Packers vs. Lions odds for Thanksgiving

Any line movement to this point has gone toward the Over, as the totals at BetMGM and Caesars have ticked up a half-point since their opening. That line movement is in accord with the early betting splits, as a whopping 90% of the wagers on Sunday backed the Over. Most of our best sports betting sites had the look-ahead total for this game at 44.5 points. Green Bay has an O/U record of 4-6, while the Over has cashed in six of Detroit’s 10 games.

All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with a point spread of Detroit -7.5. BetMGM and bet365 opened at Detroit -7, but Lions backers swooped in on that line and moved the spread off the key number of seven. Detroit is the third-most profitable ATS team in the league (7-3), while Green Bay is 5-5 ATS.