Padres-Phillies: Best bets for NLCS Game 3, including Bryce Harper, Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suárez
Thursday evening in best bets was a fruitful one, even if I picked the wrong Yankee to not get a hit -- who would've ever thought betting against Josh Donaldson doing something good in 2022 was wrong? The under hit and Framber Valdez doubled his strikeout total when we had the over. Call it a success. Even the wind couldn't screw us over!
Our focus shifts to the NLCS for Friday, as it is the only game on the schedule. This will be the last time there's only one game until one of the final four teams are eliminated. There are no more scheduled days off in either the NLCS or ALCS.
In looking at the NL side, it's difficult to look past Bryce Harper. I picked him to go over 1.5 total bases in Game 2 of the NLDS and he doubled in his first at-bat. I've advised everyone to "ride the hot hand" with him every single game since and we've been piling up the cash. He has gone seven straight games with an extra-base hit, tying the MLB playoff record. In those seven games, he has at least two hits in five of the seven games, at least a double in four of them, a home run in four of them, at least an RBI in four of them and at least one run scored in six of them.
I'm left with two separate trains of thought now. One on side, this is going to stop at some point. It's the reality of baseball. He will go 0 for 4 or 0 for 5 again. It might be Game 3 and it might be next year, but at some point, it's going to happen. On the other side, we've continued to push our chips to the center of the table with him and he keeps paying off. Why jump off the ride at this point? We're already playing with house money!
Bet on Bryce Harper
Yeah, I like gambling. What's fun about playing it safe? As Roy McAvoy liked to say, "ride her till she bucks ya, or ya don't ride at all."
The good thing here is we've won enough on Harper, there's the option to pull back the bet, secure a good percentage of the winnings and still put some action on him.
Harper has only gone 3 for 14 with seven strikeouts in his career against Padres starter Joe Musgrove, so I'd understand even more if anyone wanted to avoid here. What if I told you that he was 3 for 6 against Musgrove in the last two years, however, and that he was 1 for 7 against Yu Darvish until he homered off him in Game 1?
I'd take a look everywhere here:
- Home run +390
- Over 0.5 RBI +151
- Over 0.5 R +111
- Over 1.5 total bases +123
And if Game 3 is finally his 0fer, well, it was quite a ride.
Joe Musgrove OVER 16.5 outs recorded -123
Musgrove and his ears are on a hot streak right now. He closed the regular season with a 0.41 ERA in his last four starts. He's only give up two runs in 13 innings in his two playoff starts. The Phillies offense is certainly capable of the big inning, as we've seen in the playoffs so far, but they actually had just two solo homers in Game 1 and one solo homer in Game 2 aside from that really funky four-run second.
They did hit Musgrove hard the one time they saw him earlier this season, but that isn't a death knell for his chances here. Plus, he's allowed to give up some runs! We just need him to work deep enough into the game.
Sixteen outs is 5 1/3 innings. In 30 regular-season starts, Musgrove only failed to go that deep six times and one of those came at Coors Field. Even when he gave up six runs to the Phillies on June 23, he worked six innings.
Plus, take note that I mentioned above there are no more off days. Neither team is going to want to empty its bullpen in this one if it can help it.
Speaking of which ...
Ranger Suárez OVER 3.5 strikeouts -139
Suárez was really good down the stretch. If we throw out the Phillies 10-0 loss the day after they clinched their playoff berth, he had a 2.33 ERA in his last 13 starts in the regular season. He also only gave up one run in his 3 1/3 innings of work in NLDS Game 1 in Atlanta while striking out five. He didn't last longer because he also walked five but still, he would've hit the strikeout over in that one.
I also think he'll make it deeper into this game.
The Padres aren't one of the most prolific strikeout teams in baseball, but they aren't allergic to generating wind power either. They struck out 31 times in their three-game Wild Card Series against the Mets and 45 times in their four games in the Dodgers NLDS. In the NLCS so far, they've racked up 21 punchouts in just two games.
The Padres have hardly seen Suárez and that's an advantage for the pitcher. Again, if we toss out the day-after-clinch game -- he only went three innings anyway -- Suárez hasn't struck out fewer than four hitters since June 23, a span of 15 starts. It might deter some to know that June 23 outing was against these Padres, but not me. I like him to go over in Game 3.
