Padres vs Mets Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

10 April 2023

New York will welcome a red-hot San Diego lineup into the Big Apple Monday night, with Max Scherzer facing off against Yu Darvish. With a better offense and a slow start for Scherzer, our MLB picks expect an early lead for the Padres.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We get a big-name pitcher’s duel when the New York Mets open a three-game set against the San Diego Padres at Citi Field on Monday night.

The Padres hand the ball to Yu Darvish while the Mets counter with Max Scherzer, but while one of these veteran arms has looked as strong as ever, the other looks like it has hit a bit of a wall. Which one of these experienced hurlers has the edge?

I break down this National League showdown and bring you the best bet in my MLB picks for the Padres vs. Mets, as well as an MLB odds breakdown for the game's moneyline and total.

Padres vs Mets odds

Padres vs Mets predictions

The San Diego Padres are coming off a solid weekend in Atlanta where they took the final three games of their four-game set against the Braves. Meanwhile, the New York Mets only have wins against the Miami Marlins this season.

If the Mets want to change that, they’ll need a better performance out of Maz Scherzer. The future Hall of Famer has gotten off to a rocky start in 2023, surrendering eight runs on 14 hits while striking out eight in 11 1/3 innings of work.

Scherzer’s strikeouts are down as he's been finding too much of the plate early on this season, also leading him to give up four home runs already.

Now he goes against one of the deepest lineups in the National League. San Diego, led by Juan Soto and Manny Machado, ranks sixth in OPS and seventh in home runs when facing right-handed pitchers this season.

Meanwhile, the Padres counter Scherzer with a veteran of their own in Yu Darvish. While Darvish was missing his spots a bit in his first start of 2023, he didn’t miss in bad spots and was able to create a lot of soft contact. He ended up allowing just one run on three hits over five innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Darvish also dominated the Mets in four starts last season, allowing just two earned runs on 12 hits while striking out 19 batters in 21 innings pitched. New York's bats have been ice-cold to start the year, ranking next-to-last in batting average and 26th in OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season.

The Padres have more edges at the moment and I like them to get off to a good start tonight, holding a lead through five innings.

My best bet: Padres first-five moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)

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Padres vs Mets moneyline analysis

The Mets opened this National League matchup as -120 home favorites and have seen the early action, moving the line to Mets -135. However, this feels like New York is getting a little too much respect because it's at home and because Max Scherzer is named Max Scherzer.

These are the first signs of regression we are seeing from Scherzer following a campaign where he pitched to a 2.29 ERA. That said, his strikeout rate did drop last year, and it might take him longer to get warmed up in his age-38 season. Trying to warm up against San Diego isn’t going to be the easiest thing in the world.

On top of that, the Mets are 5-2 against the Miami Marlins this season and got swept in their only other matchup against an NL contender in the Milwaukee Brewers.

Meanwhile, the Padres are feeling good after taking three straight games from the Atlanta Braves. I think this line should have probably gone the other way. The Padres' somewhat shaky bullpen, which ranks 19th in ERA, gives me a little pause (hence the five-inning moneyline bet) but I would still lean toward San Diego as an underdog in this matchup.

Padres vs Mets Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup is on the board at 7.5, and that seems about right for a matchup between two great starters.

While he's gotten off to a slow start, this is still Max Scherzer we are talking about and he probably still has a bunch of great games left in him. But as I said, he’s getting tagged for a lot of hard contact and there are a lot of great power hitters in this Padres' lineup. A lineup that has plated 5.9 runs per game over its last eight games.

Even though New York's lineup has struggled to this point, it has started to put together better at bats recently, scoring 5.5 runs over the last four games.

The bullpens rank 14th and 19th respectively in ERA with the Mets owning a 4.41 mark and the Padres at 4.63, so they haven’t exactly been of the shutdown variety.

I don’t love the Over because of the fear of Scherzer getting his groove back, but it’s the way I would lean.

Padres vs Mets game info

Padres vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish (0-0, 1.80 ERA): Yu Darvish battled his control a bit in his first start with four walks, but he didn't miss over the plate and allowed just one run on three hits. The righty had a 3.10 ERA last season.

Max Scherzer (1-1, 6.35 ERA): Scherzer hasn't looked like himself so far this season. Eight strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings is definitely not what we expect from him. Don't write him off yet, but is Scherzer finally starting to break down?