Panthers vs. Golden Knights Game 5 pick: Stanley Cup Finals odds, prediction

The market sentiment for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final seems to be pretty clear.

Most people think that the magic has run out for the Florida Panthers.

Not only are the Cats down to their last life, but they’ll need to beat the Vegas Golden Knights three times in a row despite an injury to their talisman, Matthew Tkachuk.

It’s not known whether Tkachuk will play or not, but it’s clear that he’s nursing a pretty significant injury to his shoulder and will, at the very least, have his ice time limited on Tuesday night.

Vegas is in the driver’s seat and the market has adjusted to reflect that notion.

The Knights are -178 favorites to win Game 5 and -1400 to win the series. 

Panthers vs. Golden Knights Game 5 pick

(8 p.m. ET)

Handicapping the first elimination game of the Stanley Cup Final isn’t really as much about X’s and O’s as it is about the adjustment made in the betting market between Game 2, which was the last contest played in Vegas, and Game 5. 

Game 2, which took place last Monday night at T-Mobile Arena, closed with the Golden Knights as a -134 favorite.

Vegas routed the Panthers, 7-2, in that tilt to take control of the series.

Since then, the Knights earned a split in Sunrise and have generally outplayed the Cats along the way.

A 3-1 series lead for Vegas seems like a fair scoreline considering how the first four contests in the Stanley Cup Final have shaken out. 

When you take a step back and look at the big picture, it makes sense that the market would react favorably towards Vegas since Game 2.

Not only have the Knights tilted the ice, but Tkachuk’s injury is a massive blow for the Panthers.

It’s not a good situation for Florida, but is a 44-cent move a bit drastic?

It seems like we see this pattern a lot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Betting on the NHL?

One team builds momentum and gets everyone on their bandwagon, only to have the betting market over-adjust and put value on the team that’s been left for dead.

Not only have we seen this phenomenon in this matchup, but we also saw it twice in the same series in Round 1 between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils — the market moved a ton after the Rangers won the first two games of that series in New Jersey and then adjusted the other way when the Devils won three in a row. 

Perhaps Florida is cooked and the injury to Tkachuk is too much to overcome, but that doesn’t mean that the Panthers aren’t the right side in Game 5.

It’s never a bad idea to buy low after an adjustment like this and that’s what I’ll do on Tuesday night.

Panthers vs. Golden Knights prediction

Florida Panthers +175 (PointsBet)