Pegula vs Bencic Odds & Prediction

Jessica Pegula and Belinda Bencic will meet for the fourth time Saturday, in the semifinals of the Charleston Open.

Bencic has won all three encounters without losing a set – including high-profile matches at the US Open and in the first round of the Tokyo Olympics (at which Bencic eventually won the gold medal).

It’s the first time in a year and a half, though – since the third round of the 2021 US Open.

The winner will play the winner of the Ons Jabeur vs Daria Kasatkina semifinal.

Pegula vs Bencic Odds

At -135 odds, No. 1 seed Pegula is the slight favorite in the Pegula vs Bencic Charleston Open semifinal Saturday (about 3 pm EDT, weather permitting).  Bencic is the underdog at +108 odds. Pegula vs Bencic odds as of April 8 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Pegula’s Tough Road to the Semis

If Pegula wasn’t worn out from her double run in Miami over the previous 10 days – she made the singles semifinal, and won the doubles with countrywoman Coco Gauff –the road to the final four in Charleston has hardly been a breeze.

Her 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 win over No. 15 Irina-Camelia Begu in the third round began with her being up a set and 4-0, only to lose eight straight games and fall down 0-4 in the third. After which she ran the table and won six straight to make the quarterfinals.

And her quarterfinal against former No. 2 Paula Badosa, currently No. 33 but finding form again, wasn’t easy other.

The 6-3, 7-6 (6) score seems about right to paint the picture. Notable for Pegula was that she served extremely well.

She won nearly 80 percent of her first-serve points, and Badosa only was able to earn one break point against her.

Pegula vs Bencic Head-to-Head

Defending Champion Bencic on Track

Bencic’s early exit in Miami last week left her with plenty of time to rest and adapt to the Har-Tru surface in Charleston.

Notably she, too, had to pull off a comeback win against local Charleston favorite Shelby Rogers. The 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 victory might not have pleased the Charleston crowd, but it was a good hurdle to get over.

And then, she exacted revenge on Ekaterina Alexandrova, who was the player who defeated her in Miami.

But hard courts are Alexandrova’s territory; Bencic is a far more capable player on the clay. And she’s a big fan of the Charleston Har-Tru clay in particular.

That win Friday was 6-3, 6-3, and probably not even as close as the score might indicate. It was a comprehensive victory.

And now she meets Pegula, who has never beaten her.

Pegula vs Bencic Match History

Pegula vs Bencic Prediction

The 3-0 Bencic advantage on the head-to-head is meaningful, but also flawed in the sense that the two have never met on a clay court.

As well, Pegula wasn’t nearly the accomplished player she is now when they met on previous occasions.

Pegula was just inside the top 30 for the last two; for their first meeting on the grass in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Pegula was 21 and ranked No. 321; she was mostly playing at the ITF level. And Pegula had to win three three-setters in qualifying to make that first-round date with Bencic, who was just 18 and already ranked No. 33.

The tables have turned. But while we’re seeing this as a pretty even matchup, the tennis load accumulated by Pegula over the Sunshine Swing tells us that she might not have enough juice to stop Bencic from getting to the final, even if the Swiss star is the slight underdog.

Pegula vs Bencic: Bencic Wins the First Set, and the Match (+148)

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