Penguins vs Islanders Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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03 March 2023

Penguins vs Islanders Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

With Anders Lee on a new high-powered line and the Penguins bleeding shots of late, there's plenty of potential in a player prop market tonight. Find out more as our NHL picks lean on the Islanders' home performance.

The Pittsburgh Penguins return from their California road trip and take on the New York Islanders at the UBS Arena in a game that has moved to a pick ‘em.

With the Pens closing as -145 road favorites in the last meeting, have the books adjusted this moneyline too much, or is this a tough spot for the visitors — who are still unsure who will be in net after riding Casey DeSmith for seven straight games?

Find out my best bets and NHL picks for Penguins vs. Islanders on Friday, February 17.

Penguins vs Islanders best odds

Penguins vs Islanders picks and predictions

The Penguins give up a surprising amount of shots. Only three other teams (ANA, CBJ, and ARI) allow more per game than the Pens’ 34 per match.

Pittsburgh's Casey DeSmith has tended the net with Tristan Jarry (questionable) out and has played seven straight games, seeing on average 34.6 shots per game over that stretch. With the loss of Jan Rutta, and Mark Friedman questionable after missing the last game, this already weak blue line could be exposed again tonight vs. New York, who had 42 shots on net in the last meeting in late December.

So where's the best play on the New York Islanders for a shots market?

Since Bo Horvat has come over, he and Brock Nelson (the top two centers) have been leading the way in shots. But with Nelson moving to 3.5 and Horvat being priced as short as -165 for Over 2.5 shots, the best bet might be coming from a secondary player.

Anders Lee has moved to the top line with Matt Barzal and Horvat. The team has been trying to find a winger to fit the line since the trade, and tonight it will be Lee’s turn.

#Isles forward lines at practice:
Lee-Horvat-Barzal
Parise-Nelson-Palmieri
Bailey-Cizikas-Holmstrom
Martin-Andreoff/Koivula-Fasching
— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) February 16, 2023

He's coming off a 20-game high 20:13 minutes of ice time where he recorded three shots and played six minutes with the top power-play line. The play has earned him a promotion on the top line and isn't being totally priced into his markets.

His Over 0.5 points is in play tonight at -105, but I’m taking the Over 2.5 shots on goal at +115. He averages 2.62 shots per game this season but with the upgraded role and matchup, the plus money for the Over is the deciding factor.

My best bet: Anders Lee Over 2.5 shots on goal (+115)

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Penguins vs Islanders moneyline analysis

The Pittsburgh Penguins are gaining a little attention in the market after opening at -105 and moving to a pick ‘em in some spots. That’s in big contrast to the last time these two teams met in December, when the Penguins closed as -145 road favorites and lost 5-1.

That was the first game for both clubs following the Christmas break and featured today’s possible goalie matchup of Ilya Sorokin vs. Jarry. The Islanders outshot Pittsburgh 42-21 in that meeting and have a better roster since then with the addition of Horvat.

We’re looking at roughly 30 points of difference between the two matchups and Horvat isn’t worth that much, but the move is warranted.

One of the major points in the pricing is with the Pittsburgh goaltending. Jarry might make his return after missing the last seven games and giving a lot of work to DeSmith, who has started seven straight games and went 4-2-1 with a respectable .913 SV%. He saw a ton of shots in that stretch — 34.6 shots against per game — which is something troubling for the Pens, as only two other teams are allowing more shots on net since Christmas at 34.9.

If Jarry does start, I won’t be running to take to the Pens on the moneyline but would assume the ML would shorten up and make the Pens the favorites. Pittsburgh’s No.1 goalie has played just two games since the beginning of January and has hit the IR two separate times with a lower- and an upper-body injury.

Since adding Horvat, the Islanders are 2-3 SU and have dropped three straight despite getting two points in the trio of losses. This team has played with the lead in all three of those losses, and considering it has a Top-3 goalie in Sorokin and the third-best GAA at home (2.34), these recent late collapses aren’t the norm, as New York is 11-2 SU at home when entering the third with a lead.

New York will also be facing a Pittsburgh team playing its first game back from a West Coast road trip, which isn’t easy to reset from a player’s point of view and could actually be priced into today’s line.

Jarry starting doesn’t worry me as an Islander backer but I think patient bettors can get a better number on the New York moneyline if Jarry is confirmed as the starter.

Pittsburgh could also be without two starting defensemen on an already weak blue line as Jan Rutta (IR) and Mark Friedman (day-to-day) missed the previous game.

Despite the price adjustment since the last meeting and a slight market move to the Pens, I lean on the Islanders tonight.

Penguins vs Islanders Over/Under analysis

The last meeting had a closing total of 6, while today’s total of 6 is starting to lean pretty well to the Under and I wouldn’t be surprised if it hit 5.5 at some point — especially if Jarry is confirmed.

At home, the Islanders see some of the lowest-scoring games at 5.2 total goals, and looking back over the last three seasons, that number is 5.38. Only the Hurricanes have a better home GAA than the Islanders over the last three seasons at 2.34.

Now add in a Vezina run from Sorokin, and this is one of the hardest teams to score against at home.

The Pens are coming back from a West Coast trip having scored just three goals over their last two games and this is not a favorable schedule spot for them and their offense. The power play went 1-for-12 on the three-game run, the road offense ranks 20th in goals per game at 2.93 on the season, and Pittsburgh has scored just 10 goals in its last five games in Long Island.

New York ranks 28th in goals per game at home and couples that with the worst home power play in hockey. I like the Islanders tonight and think they can win a low-scoring affair as the Pens get their legs back from a West Coast trip.