Penn State vs. Ohio State Prediction: Against the Spread Best Bet, Week 8

This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football’s biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup. 

Let’s take a look at a classic Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Penn State.  

Penn State vs Ohio State, current line:

Penn State vs Ohio State Best Bet Prediction:

The Buckeyes often struggle in State College, but this one is in Columbus 一 so lay the points and take Ohio State against the spread.  

• Penn State vs. Ohio State, current line: Ohio State -4.5

When Penn State is on Offense

Penn State runs one of the nation’s most conservative offenses, likely due to the inexperience of sophomore quarterback Drew Allar. 

According to Campus2Canton, Penn State throws the ball at a 42.5% rate in a neutral game script, the Big Ten’s fourth-lowest rate. 

When Penn State does throw the ball, Allar tends to dink and dunk his way down the field. Allar’s average depth of throw is 6.5 yards downfield, and 32% of his throws don’t even cross the line of scrimmage, per Sports Info Solutions. 

Additionally, no team has attempted passes at 15 or more yards downfield at a lower rate than Penn State (12.2% of attempts).

Given Allar’s inexperience, there’s no reason to believe the Nittany Lions will expand the offense in the first big test game of his career. As a result, the key to stopping Penn State’s passing attack is limiting yards after the catch. 

Unfortunately for Penn State, this has been a strength of the Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes rank 23rd in yards after the catch per reception allowed. 

Due to the ultra-conservative nature of the Penn State passing attack, this has been one of the nation’s least explosive offenses 一 a shocking development given the lack of competition the Nittany Lions have faced. 

Penn State ranks 132nd in explosive play rate, generating 20 or more yards on just 3.5% of plays. And if you think this is a product of not needing to be explosive, consider that Michigan, against an even softer schedule, ranks 40th at a rate of 8.1%. 

In the run game, Ohio State’s defense holds a clear edge based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

• Penn State: ranked 70th in yards before contact
• Ohio State: ranked 18th in yards before contact allowed

The Nittany Lions’ lack of explosive plays also extends to the run game, as they generate 10 or more yards on just 10% of carries, ranked 114th.

Ohio State’s defense ranks fourth in the nation by the same metric 一 so don’t expect Nick Singleton or Kaytron Allen to get loose on the ground. 

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When Ohio State is on Offense

Ohio State runs a balanced pro-style offense under head coach Ryan Day and first-year offensive coordinator Brian Hartline. According to Campus2Canton, the Buckeyes throw the ball at a 49% rate in a neutral game script. 

This matchup will be a serious test for Ohio State’s offensive line, as Penn State ranks second in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions. 

The challenge will be particularly difficult due to Ohio State’s pro-style passing attack, which forces Kyle McCord to take a traditional dropback (three or more steps) at a 61% rate, the 12th-highest rate in the nation. 

Penn State has generated a 58.1% pressure rate against traditional dropbacks, the nation’s second-best rate. 

Fortunately for the Buckeyes, their young offensive line has fared well in pass protection and ranks 13th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed. 

If Ohio State can protect McCord, expect the Buckeyes to put some points on the board. McCord ranks fourth in the nation in yards per attempt from a clean pocket (11.0), per Sports Info Solutions. 

It’s also worth noting, McCord has handled pressure well for a young quarterback. He’s taken a sack on just 17% of his dropbacks versus pressure (FBS average: 21%) and has yet to throw an interception while under duress. 

As McCord has gained experience, Ohio State has gradually opened up the passing game and has been challenging defenses downfield more in recent weeks. 

Take a look at McCord’s rate of throwing 15 or more yards downfield against FBS opponents:

• Week 1 vs Indiana: 18%
• Week 3 vs Western Kentucky: 13%
• Week 4 vs Notre Dame: 24%
• Week 5 vs Maryland: 23%
• Week 7 vs Purdue: 32%

Led by Kevin King 一 who has allowed just three receptions in coverage, per Sports Info Solutions 一 Penn State boasts one of the nation’s best secondary units, and opponents have avoided throwing downfield. 

Only 16% of throws against the Nittany Lions have been 15 or more yards downfield, the nation’s eighth-lowest rate, while they’ve allowed a 35% completion rate on those throws (ranked 31st). 

That success has been heavily influenced by the pass rush, however. When Penn State fails to generate pressure, it allows a 44% completion rate downfield, which ranks 72nd per Sports Info Solutions. 

Injuries have decimated Ohio State’s backfield in recent weeks, as the Buckeyes entered last week without TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams and lost Chip Trayanum during the game.

Dallan Hayden, who was planning to redshirt, was forced into action. Hayden is not your typical fourth-string running back, however, as he was also forced into a key role late last season and started for the Buckeyes against Georgia in the playoffs. 

It’s unclear who will be available for Ohio State on Saturday, though Henderson traveled with the team to Purdue last week, typically a sign he had a chance to play and was a late scratch. 

Regardless of who’s carrying the ball, Penn State’s defense holds a clear advantage in the run game based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

• Ohio State: ranked 59th in yards before contact
• Penn State: ranked seventh in yards before contact allowed

The Nittany Lions have contacted opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 49.5% of attempts, which will make life extremely difficult for Buckeye ball carriers. 

Penn State’s defensive success against both the run and pass is perhaps best demonstrated by its ability to force third-and-long situations and then get off the field:

• 40.2% of set-of-downs lead to a third-and-long (leads nation)
• 8.9% conversation rate allowed on third-and-long (ranked third)

Final Thoughts on Ohio State vs Penn State Best Bets

Penn State’s offensive struggles against a terrible schedule are a red flag, so take Ohio State against the spread. 

A key factor in this close spread is Penn State’s dominant defensive numbers, but there’s good reason to be skeptical of the unit, which didn’t add any impact transfers and lost two key members of its secondary (Joey Porter Jr. and Ji’Ayir Brown) to the NFL. 

In 2022, Penn State allowed 13.1 points per game to everyone other than Ohio State and Michigan 一 but gave up 44 and 41 points to the Big Ten’s elite. 

Maybe Penn State’s defense will prove it belongs on Saturday. But until that happens, expect Ohio State’s offense to do some damage, and it seems unlikely Allar and company have the offensive weapons to keep up.