Phillies vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds

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04 September 2023

Phillies vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds

The Padres open a three-game set against the playoff-bound Phillies this evening. While the Phils have been the better team on the year compared to the disappointing Friars, San Diego plays tough at home and our betting picks reflect this.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Happy Labor Day to everyone observing. This evening, we have a good baseball game when the Philadelphia Phillies head to PETCO Park for Game 1 of a three-game series with the San Diego Padres.

Righty Taijuan Walker takes the bump for the Phillies as veteran southpaw Rich Hill is set to toe the slab for the Padres.

Philadelphia has a 3-1 edge on the year and can win their season series with a victory over the Padres. Can Philadelphia end San Diego’s three-game winning streak? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Padres on Monday, September 4.

Phillies vs Padres odds

Phillies vs Padres predictions

The Padres are coming off a big series win over the San Francisco Giants, and my best bet is the San Diego moneyline.

Lefty Rich Hill has struggled at times this season, and the Padres are 0-5 in his five starts since he was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates. The strikeouts come and go, but he whiffed seven Phillies in his last start against this club, and he’s struck out seven or more seven times this season.

The Phillies have the second-worst strikeout rate against lefties. Yesterday, Brewers left-hander Wade Miley fanned four and spun a no-hitter through six innings before Philadelphia jacked back-to-back bombs and ultimately hung on for a 4-2 victory. The Phillies struggled against Miley and will struggle against Hill this afternoon.

The Padres boast some terrific individual players, but they’ve struggled to a 65-73 record. However, San Diego does boast an above .500 mark at PETCO Park.

Taijuan Walker has been good for Philly, but he’s better at home than on the road. He’s striking out seven with a pair of walks and 1.25 home runs over 65 away innings pitched, and while he’s thrown well recently, his xFIP is nearly 5.00, and he’s up against a Padres offense with a 109 wRC+ and a 6-4 record over their last 10 games.

Finally, the Phillies aren’t a good away team with a sub-.500 away record. Philadelphia is favored slightly, but the home/away splits point us in one direction, and that’s a Padres victory this afternoon in San Diego.

My best bet: Padres moneyline (-105 at Caesars)

Phillies vs Padres same-game parlay

Padres moneyline

Trent Grisham to get a hit

Juan Soto to get a hit

The Padres moneyline play has already been discussed. I like Hill and the Padres against a tired Phillies side with a mediocre road record.

Trent Grisham has struggled mightily this season, but he has four home runs with 30 hits over 116 at-bats against righties this season. He had a pair of hits Saturday and I look for him to approach his at-bats vs. Walker, against whom he's had success in a small five-AB sample.

Juan Soto has jacked bombs in three consecutive games and is 5-17 with three home runs and six RBI over his past 17 at-bats. Soto has four hits in 11 at-bats against Walker and should be good for at least one hit today.

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Phillies vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Phillies are riding a three-game home winning streak and are 8-2 over their past 10, with six of those victories at Citizens Bank Park.

The first four games vs. San Diego in 2023 went Over the total. That number is currently set at 9 for tonight's series opener.

For the season, the Phillies are 31-33-4 to the Over as the away side. Meanwhile, the Over is 28-39-3 at PETCO Park this season.

Walker receives 4.62 runs of support per start, while the Padres have scored an average of two runs per Hill outing.

Finally, my best bet is the moneyline, but I strongly considered the Under 9. With a bit of patience, 10 runs might become available, and I would definitely play Under if it does.

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The Padres are 4-0 in their last four when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Padres

Phillies vs Padres game info

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (14-5, 4.05 ERA): Walker is a veteran with 11 earned runs over his previous 31 2/3 away innings. Walker is whiffing seven per nine, but the three walks and 1.25 home runs per nine frames could be problematic this afternoon. Walker has a 4.85 ERA over 65 innings pitched on the road.

Rich Hill (7-13, 5.26 ERA): The 43-year-old hurler has been around forever. He was acquired in a trade with the Pirates and has made five starts for San Diego. He’s pitched twice at PETCO for San Diego and allowed nine earned runs. Hill’s striking out 7.69 hitters with 3.48 walks and 1.38 home runs per nine frames on the bump. Hill either has it or he doesn’t, and the Padres have lost all five of his starts.