Rangers vs. Red Wings prediction: NHL odds, picks, bets for Wednesday
The Detroit Red Wings are off to a surprisingly buoyant start to the 2023-24 NHL Season.
Projected to finish seventh in the competitive Atlantic Division, the Wings have turned expectations on their head with an 11-6-3 start that has them sitting third in the Atlantic and fourth in the Eastern Conference through the first quarter of the campaign.
Despite the fast start (which includes their current three-game winning streak), the betting market remains skeptical of the Wings.
Detroit was a home pick’em against a struggling Wild team on Sunday night, and currently is priced as a +150 underdog at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday.
There’s a reason that the betting market is skeptical of the Red Wings despite their strong start.
The underlying numbers paint the Wings as a below-average team that is getting by thanks to the third-best shooting percentage in the NHL, but that does seem a little unfair to Detroit.
Although they rank in the bottom-third of the league in shot attempt differential, expected goals percentage and high-danger scoring chance rate, the Wings do seem to have a clear process for how they want to play.
Essentially, the numbers tell us that Detroit does everything it can to play low-event games.
They don’t create many quality scoring chances, but they don’t give up many, either.
The Red Wings yield 10.5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is the eighth-best mark in the NHL.
They’ve allowed just 17.6 expected goals at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games, which is the seventh-best in the league over that span.
The New York Rangers have a lot more talent than the Red Wings, but there are plenty of similarities between these two clubs.
Neither the Blueshirts nor the Red Wings care about dominating the game at 5-on-5, but would rather keep things tidy in their own zone and patiently wait for their opportunities to come, rather than force them.
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Both teams are happy to bet on themselves in tight games thanks to clinical finishers and top-10 power plays.
As we noted Monday, it’s going to be hard to find betting value on the Rangers for the time being.
Such is the case when a team boasts the best record in the league and hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season.
That said, the number on the Red Wings does seem a little short of where it would need to be for a bet (it’s 30 cents shorter than where the Sabres closed Monday at MSG).
Instead of backing a side here, punters can find value here by betting this game to go beyond regulation.
Both the Rangers and Red Wings want to keep things predictable at 5-on-5 and there won’t be much room on the ice, so there’s a good chance that the draw stays in play for the entire contest.
The bet: 60-minute draw (+350, FanDuel)
