Ravens vs. Chargers Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 12

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23 November 2023

Ravens vs. Chargers Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 12

The Los Angeles Chargers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football in a battle between two teams bounced in the Wild Card Round of last year's NFL playoffs, and we have you covered with our Ravens vs. Chargers predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Baltimore Ravens boast the AFC's best record at 8-3 following their 34-20 victory on Thursday night against the Cincinnati Bengals. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, with an 8-1 record as a starter versus the Bengals, has secured five consecutive primetime wins and seven of his last eight.

The Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, fell to 4-6 with a 23-20 loss last week to the Green Bay Packers, placing them in last position in the AFC West. Having lost four of their previous six games, the Chargers hold a 23-21 record in three seasons under head coach Brandon Staley. Notably, five of their six losses this season have been by three points or fewer.

As part of our Week 12 NFL predictions, here is our best Ravens vs. Chargers prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ravens vs. Chargers prediction: Sunday Night Football

Chargers +4 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

The Ravens will surely be one of the most popular favorites this week, as they would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs if the season ended today. Based on how Staley handled last week's postgame press conference, they are facing a reeling Chargers team whose season seems on the verge of spiraling out of control. However, if there is one thing Los Angeles knows how to do, it is to keep games close, as it has five losses by a field goal or less, while no other team in the NFL has more than two such losses.

The Chargers would not be amid a two-game losing streak if not for scoring just one touchdown on four red zone possessions at Green Bay last week. The team’s poor play cannot be pinned on Justin Herbert, as he has a 9-1 TD-INT ratio over the previous four games and was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback in Week 11. While Herbert’s 21-of-36 passing for 260 yards against the Packers does not jump off the page, PFF graded him so highly because six drops victimized him.

While the Chargers offense is undervalued entering this game, Next Gen Stats found a reason why Baltimore’s offense could be overvalued this week, as its +70 yards after the catch over expected was a season-high. In addition, Lamar Jackson’s 61.7% passing yards after the catch rate was the third-highest in his career. Los Angeles may find difficulty pressuring Jackson with Joey Bosa now on injured reserve. Still, while Baltimore’s offensive line allowed eight total pressures last week, four came from Patrick Mekari, which should give the Chargers something they can exploit.

This is a three-star play, as Jackson has performed poorly as a favorite of more than three points, going 21-30 ATS compared to covering 19 or 25 games when he is a field-goal favorite or less.

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Ravens vs. Chargers best odds

As Chargers backers, making Caesars our go-to shop is a no-brainer, as it is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a line higher than +3.5. We would not play this number down to +3.5, so we are taking advantage of any line higher than we can get. There also may be some attractive live-betting opportunities in this matchup if the Chargers fall behind early, as Baltimore is 10-0-2 on the first-quarter moneyline this season.

Use our Caesars promo code, SBRBONUS1000, to take advantage.

Ravens vs. Chargers odds for Sunday Night Football

While most of our top sportsbooks opened at -4, DraftKings was the only one to open slightly higher at -4.5. None of our other best sports betting sites got as high as -4.5, as any line movement has favored the Chargers. However, this game is a case of reverse line movement, which suggests sharp action is on Los Angeles, as the early betting splits are 70/30 in Baltimore’s favor.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook currently offering a total of 46.5 points, as all of our other best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 47. Any line movement has gone toward the Over, as FanDuel has gone from 45.5 to 46.5, BetMGM from 46.5 to 47, and Caesars, bet365, and DraftKings from 46 to 47. The betting splits (62/38 in support of the Over) align with that movement, despite the Under cashing in seven of the last eight Chargers games.