Sabres: Grading Dylan Cozens' $49.7 million contract extension

The buffalo sabres locked up a key piece of their young core earlier this month, signing forward Dylan Cozens to a long-term contract extension. Cozens’ new deal is for seven years and carries a $7.1 million cap hit, kicking in next season.

Below, we take a look at how the deal breaks down for the Sabres.

Player Overview

Cozens is 22 years old and was originally selected seventh overall by the Sabres in 2019. The forward spent one year back in junior with the WHL’s Lethbridge Hurricanes after being drafted, before making the jump to the NHL for the shortended 2020-21 season. Cozens was still adjusting to the NHL though his first two seasons, but this can be considered a breakout year for him.

This season, Cozens has scored 23 goals and 52 points in 57 games. The production puts him on pace for 33 goals and 75 points per 82 games, which comes close to doubling his points pace from last season.

He’s a great skater and looks like a lock as Buffalo’s long-term, second-line center. Considering his age, we’re also likely to see him continue to improve.

Sabres’ Cap Hit

A long-term deal at $7.1 million per year is a sizable extension for Dylan Cozens. He’s really only taken a major step this year and the cap hit is based almost exclusively on his limited sample size of heightened play this season.

At the same time, the Sabres are expecting Cozens to maintain this level of production. He does have a higher shooting percentage this year, but his playmaking abilities make this less of a concern. All signs point to this season being a legitimate step in Cozens’ development, rather than a one-off.

The Sabres locking up their top two centers until the end of the decade is a big win. Between Cozens and Tage Thompson, the Sabres are only paying a combined $14 million per year until 2030. Especially as the cap rises, this is a contract that could help the Sabres continue to improve. Given how reasonable the prices came in, the team preserves some cap space to build around them long-term.

If Cozens can continue to score at a pace of around 30 goals and 70 points per season, this deal is going to be a steal. That’s not even factoring in that there’s a great chance his production could continue to climb.

The Term

Betting on Dylan Cozens with a seven-year deal makes sense. Given his age, Cozens is going to be a long-term part of the Sabres’ core. This contract should carry him through his prime, just as the Sabres are starting to compete.

Buffalo has struggled to build a playoff team, now over a decade from their last postseason appearance. If there was ever a time for optimism though, this is it. The Sabres have finally managed to start building a talented, young core through the draft. With the likes of Cozens, Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch and Jack Quinn as pieces to build around up front, along with the duo of first-overall picks in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power on the blue line, the Sabres look poised to be a competitive team for a long time.

While Buffalo may not be there quite yet, we’ve seen significant steps taken this season. The Sabres should continue getting better and Cozens will be a key piece of that equation.

If the Sabres hadn’t gone long-term, they’d be looking at a bridge-deal instead. Comparing the risk versus reward for the Sabres though, this was the right time to make a bet on Cozens long-term. With a limited sample size of high-end production, Cozens’ price wasn’t going to be wildly high. At the same time, the organization has seen that he’s able to produce at a high rate. While there’s always the threat that this level of production isn’t sustainable, that seems relatively unlikely. This deal carries a degree of risk like any long-term contract would, but the possible upside here certainly outweighs any potential downside.

There’s also very little trade protection associated with the extension. Cozens will only have a five-team no-trade that kicks in starting with the 2027-28 season. His age make him ineligible to have trade protection beforehand, but maintaining that flexibility afterwards helps. It’s unlikely that trade protection plays any role here anyways, as the Sabres are likely to continue improving. Again though, it’s not like a no-trade or no-move clause was included, which is a bonus.

There’s a lot to like about this deal for the Sabres. Cozens should continue improving and getting him locked up long-term, just as the team is getting competitive, is a key step. The price is high for half of a season of quality production, but there’s no reason to think Cozens can’t sustain it.

As the salary cap rises, there’s a strong chance this deal looks great in a couple of years.