Sabres vs. Maple Leafs picks and odds: Bet on offence, especially from Toronto
For the third and final time this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs clash with the Buffalo Sabres.
The pregame narrative: Based on general performance this season and recent head-to-head history, we expect a high-scoring matchup at Scotiabank Arena on Monday night. The Maple Leafs will try for the series sweep against a Sabres team that has lost four in a row.
NHL odds as of 6:20 p.m. on 03/12/2023.
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs picks
Best Bet: Maple Leafs over 4 goals (-114)
This line asks a lot of the Maple Leafs while simultaneously expecting very little from the Sabres. And that makes plenty of sense.
Toronto has one of the league’s most productive offences, scoring 3.43 goals per game (seventh in the NHL). The Buds have been even better at home, scoring 3.59 goals per 60 (sixth).
As for the Sabres, they rank sixth-last in goals allowed per game (3.62), and they’ve been in a particularly messy state lately.
Buffalo has coughed up 4.61 goals per 60 over the past two weeks, according to Natural Stat Trick, which is the second-worst mark in the league. The team comes by it honestly, too, with the second-worst xGA/60 and the third-worst high-danger chances allowed per 60 in that span.
Toronto received an obvious boost on Saturday with the return of John Tavares, who notched a three-point night after missing the team’s previous game.
The Leafs have 11 goals over two prior matchups with the Sabres — exceeding this line both times — and we expect more of the same on Monday.
Key stat: Toronto has scored four-plus goals in 14 of its past 21 home games (since the start of December).
Quick picks
Over 6.5 goals (-139): The Maple Leafs should be able to drive scoring in this matchup, hence why we’re backing their offence in our best bet section.
But the Sabres have plenty of offensive firepower, too, with five skaters over the 20-goal threshold (led by Tage Thompson’s 42 goals). Buffalo ranks third in the league with 3.65 goals per game.
Both matchups between the Sabres and Leafs this season went over the 6.5-goal mark.
Nylander anytime goal scorer (+104): This is a fair price to back Nylander, who has scored in exactly half of his past 18 games — including Saturday. If we’re going to bet on a bounty of goals, we might as well invest in Toronto’s leading goal scorer.
Nylander (34 goals) scored in both previous matchups against the Sabres this season, pumping nine shots on net and finding twine three times.
