Should Ole Miss football be underdog in Peach Bowl vs Penn State?

OXFORD — For the fourth time this season, Ole Miss football harbors underdog status as it prepares to play Penn State in the Peach Bowl.

The Rebels, unbeaten when favored and 1-2 when they aren't, are 3.5-point underdogs against the Nittany Lions, according to most sportsbooks as of Monday.

Did the sportsbooks get it right?

Here's the case for and against the Rebels (10-2) to cover against the Nittany Lions (10-2) when they clash in Atlanta on Dec. 30 (11 a.m., ESPN).

Why Penn State will cover

The Nittany Lions have an opportunity to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Penn State concluded the regular season with an offensive line that graded out in college football's top half when it came to pass blocking and inside the top 20 in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus. The Rebels, who endured injuries to their offensive line as the season wore on, came in behind the Nittany Lions in both of those categories.

But coach James Franklin's team exerted its true dominance on the defensive side of the ball, where Penn State led all of college football with four sacks per game. That production helped make the Nittany Lions the country's third-best scoring defense during the regular season, and allowed them to dominate the field position game to help prop up an offense that struggled to produce explosive plays.

The Nittany Lions produced just 40 plays of 20 or more yards, but 15 of those came in the final two games of the year after Franklin fired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Extrapolate that rate out over a 12-game season and you end up with 90 such plays, which would have ranked second nationally. Though It should be noted that those games came against weak opposition in Rutgers and Michigan State.

Recruiting rankings indicate that the Nittany Lions should have a general athletic advantage. Since the 2019 cycle, Ole Miss has signed a better high school recruiting class than Penn State just once.

Why Ole Miss will cover

The Rebels can counter Penn State's on-paper advantage in the trenches with a crop of skill players that comfortably surpasses what the Nittany Lions have offered in that department this season.

Tre Harris will be the best receiver on the field for either team, with 851 yards and eight touchdowns to show for a campaign that saw him miss significant time due to injury. Behind him, Ole Miss rosters a pair of 700-yard wideouts in Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins. Penn State did not have a single 700-yard receiver during the regular season.

And, crucially, it seems relatively certain that Ole Miss can bring that strength to the matchup. The same can't be said for the Nittany Lions, who have already seen their best pass rusher opt out of the bowl game in Chop Robinson, with more decisions still pending.

Manny Diaz, who coordinated an outstanding Penn State defense, has been named coach of Duke. Franklin declined to say Monday who would take over the defensive playcalling duties.

In Jaxson Dart, who threw for 2,985 yards and 20 touchdowns during the regular season, the Rebels have the more productive quarterback – and one who has proven himself capable of neutralizing opposing pass rushes with his legs.