Stan 'The Fan' Charles' MLB Power Rankings Preview: National League
It’s not as if there is a mile of difference between Atlanta and Philadelphia. I do think the Braves have the better rotation from top to bottom, and I think their lineup is more potent. But there is a Dave Dombrowski issue that seems like it’ll keep the team from the City of Brotherly Love a step behind. As a fairly keen observer of Dombrowski in Chicago, Miami, Detroit, Boston and now Philadelphia, I have always felt he undervalued having one big-time closer. This Phillies club to me screams for a top-tier closer.
Star closer Josh Hader was available this offseason, and as far as we know, Dombrowski made no attempt at locking down the back end of games. Instead, he’ll go with a committee after Craig Kimbrel left in free agency. I think that’s what will separate Atlanta and Philadelphia.
I think Marlins ownership made a major misstep in not re-signing and elevating former GM Kim Ng. Miami’s pitching can be very good, but this club will struggle to score enough runs. While I like the job skipper Skip Schumaker did a year ago, I have a hard time seeing the Marlins finishing above third in this division.
The Mets are not a very good team and the expectations are way down from a year ago. They no longer have Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer. Plus, Kodai Senga, their best pitcher from 2023, is on the shelf. But owner Steve Cohen did the smart thing by hiring a big-time franchise-builder in David Stearns. Cohen will back away unless a check needs to be signed.
While I am picking the Nats to finish last, they could finish as high as third. I have to give GM Mike Rizzo a lot of credit. After making that monstrous trade with San Diego in 2022, this club is on the rise. The Nats came away with major talents in shortstop CJ Abrams, lefty MacKenzie Gore, future back-end reliever Jarlin Susana and outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood.
1. St. Louis Cardinals2. Cincinnati Reds3. Chicago Cubs4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Milwaukee Brewers
The Cardinals picked up three serious innings-eaters for their rotation in Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, which should keep the rest of the staff fresh throughout the season. They need star third baseman Nolan Arenado to step up to his Colorado level of production. That’s not an easy task, considering he plays 81 home games in St. Louis rather than Coors Field.
The Cards very rarely embarrass themselves, but they did twice last season. First, manager Oliver Marmol called out Tyler O’Neill for lackluster hustle. Then there was the mysterious pronouncement that Willson Cotreras — the catcher they had just signed to a five-year, $87.5 million deal — was unfit to catch for them because of poor pitch-calling ability.
While I am picking the Cardinals in an improving yet lightweight division, it won’t shock me if by June franchise icon Yadier Molina is managing the team.
I really loved the Reds in the middle of last season. They were like a comet streaking across the MLB landscape and just like that, they faded down the stretch in big-time fashion, just barely finishing above .500. They are, of course, hoping for better health out of young pitchers Hunter Green and Nick Lodolo. Additionally, the Reds committed $58 million to pitchers Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán.
The dark horses in this division are the Cubs, who like the Reds had their moments in 2023 and actually finished a game higher than the Reds. They jettisoned David Ross for Craig Counsell, just like Theo Epstein had done with Rick Renteria and Joe Maddon. With what they are paying Counsell ($8 million annually), the Cubs seem to think he can move mountains.
They just made headlines by finally re-signing lefty slugger Cody Bellinger to a three-year deal on their terms. For that, they gave the player opt-outs after Years 1 and 2. The Cubs also made an interesting four-player deal with the Dodgers, sending high-end pitching prospect Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zyhir Hope for 2019 first-round infielder Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte.
I love the job Pirates GM Ben Cherington is doing in building up the Pirates. Last year, they took their turn as a surprise team in the first two months of the season before faltering and finishing in fourth place.
The Pirates have made a lot of around-the-margins moves, acquiring lefties Marco Gonzales and Martín Pérez and adding veteran hitters Yasmani Grandal, Rowdy Tellez and Edward Olivares. But the continued growth of their core group — catcher Henry Davis, outfielder Bryan Reynolds and infielders Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz — is the key for the long haul.
Signing right-hander Mitch Keller to a five-year extension sends a positive message to the fans. One other move of note was bring in longtime closer Aroldis Chapman, but he doesn’t figure to get many save opportunities with David Bednar firmly entrenched in the closer role. It’ll also be interesting to see how quickly 2023 No. 1 pick Paul Skenes makes his way up the ladder.
The Brewers won the division a year ago, so why do I see them in the cellar? The loss of Counsell is big. They won’t have starters Corbin Burnes (trade) and Brandon Woodruff (shoulder). In addition, veteran lefty Wade Miley doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to start the season. That’s a lot of innings new skipper Pat Murphy will have to make up.
One other factor in my cellar prediction for the Brewers: I’m assuming as the season settles in and the club falls further behind, they’ll deal both shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams. Two players to watch for the Brewers are outfielder Jackson Chourio and infielder Joey Ortiz. Chourio is the No. 2 prospect in MLB, behind Baltimore’s Jackson Holliday. Ortiz is the former Orioles prospect who will start the season as Milwaukee’s third baseman.
The Brewers appear to be dead-set on using DL Hall as their No. 5 starter. As I said many times when Hall was an Orioles prospect, the Brewers are taking a potential bullpen difference-maker and barking up the wrong tree with his assignment.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers2. Arizona Diamondbacks3. San Francisco Giants4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies
No big surprises out West, with the Dodgers picked to win by close to a mile. The question really is can they be the 110 or more wins great or just very good at 100-plus wins? The other question is whether they are god enough to get past the Braves and/or Phillies to make it to the World Series.
The offense poses problems for opposing pitchers with a trio of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and $700 million man Shohei Ohtani. After that, they have to deal with third baseman Max Muncy, catcher Will Smith and outfielders James Outman and Teoscar Hernández. Oh, did I leave out infielder Gavin Lux, back after missing all of the regular season a year ago with a devastating knee injury?
The Dodgers have had to fully rebuild a rotation decimated by injuries and legal issues. They were fortunate to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the great young pitcher from Japan. They traded for Tyler Glasnow and immediately signed him to an extension. Behind them right now are Bobby Miller, James Paxton and Emmet Sheehan.
The Dodgers no longer have lefty Julio Urías, who is technically a free agent. An investigation is still ongoing into a domestic assault case involving Urías. Even if he were to be cleared, he still would be subject to severe penalties by MLB. Doubt it? Ask former Dodger Trevor Bauer how that worked out.
At various points this season the Dodgers could get back from injuries Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.
The surprising Arizona Diamondbacks, runners-up to the Rangers last October, are good enough to be pesky. They figure to be a lot peskier than the posers south of LA (the Padres).
Their starting quartet of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, newcomer Eduardo Rodriguez and youngster Brandon Pfaadt is really good. And the lineup is no day in the park for opposing pitchers. Reigning National League Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll leads the way. He has the help of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Eugenio Suárez, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, expected to serve as the designated hitter against right-handed pitching.
The Diamondbacks are a real nice club and figure to get into the post-season again.
I have the Giants in third place. They just added Matt Chapman, a Gold Glove third baseman with some pop. They also added designated hitter Jorge Soler and Japanese center fielder Jung Hoo Lee.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the Giants will reel in free-agent lefty Blake Snell. The need for Snell has gotten greater with the news that right-handers Tristan Beck (shoulder) and Keaton Winn (elbow) are down. They were already without two other pitchers for half the season in veteran right-hander Alex Cobb and former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray.
Bob Melvin, who has a reputation of being one of the best managers in the game, is now leading the way in San Francisco. His poise and seasoning should help him set the right tone for a club that needs to get all the oars going in the same direction.
Anyone who reads my power rankings regularly knows I am not much of a fan of Padres GM A.J. Preller. He can spin the Juan Soto trade to the Yankees and chirp about the return in the deal (pitchers Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe and catcher Kyle Higashioka). But here’s the bottom line: In order to get Soto in 2022, Preller traded a soon-to-be-star shortstop in CJ Abrams, a fast-rising lefty in MacKenzie Gore and perhaps an Aaron Judge-like talent who will make his big league debut very soon in James Wood.
That trade borders on malpractice. So far, Preller seems to suffer no consequences for his poor judgment. He does deserve some of the credit for a seemingly never-ending pipeline of young talent that the Padres possess.
New skipper Mike Shildt is an interesting hire. He had a good run as Cardinals skipper before being dismissed following the 2021 season. He’s got an interesting mix of players, but I see them finishing fourth. Perhaps they can peek in front of the Giants.
What can you say about the Colorado Rockies? I simply feel bad for skipper Bud Black, who deserves much better. Then again, when he gets his checks, he must be smiling with a pretty wide smile.
I know he wasn’t perfect, but this club has barely had a pulse since it dismissed former GM Dan O’Dowd after the 2014 season.
