Stanley Cup Final Golden Knights vs. Panthers Game 3 picks: Back Vegas as an underdog

The Florida Panthers need a win on Thursday to avoid a three-game deficit in the Stanley Cup Final.

The pregame narrative: We expect the scoring to tamper down, as the Vegas Golden Knights haven’t had the same offensive spark on the road as they’ve had at home. With that said, Vegas looks like an enticing moneyline pick at even money.

NHL odds as of 3:30 p.m. on 06/07/2023.

Golden Knights vs. Panthers picks

Best Bet: Under 6 goals (-110)

Betting on the under often isn’t fun, and it might seem like a questionable move given that the first two games of this series have hit the over. But allow us to explain.

For one thing, over 6 goals only hit in Game 1 because of a late empty-netter that lifted Vegas to a 5-2 win. Secondly (and more importantly), this Vegas squad hasn’t been nearly as potent on the road.

The Golden Knights have hit the over more often than not in the playoffs, but they’ve been doing it at home. At an O/U line of 6 goals, Vegas has pushed or hit the under in six of eight road games.

As for Florida, a three-game overs streak isn’t enough for us to balk at the under. Since the start of the second round, Panthers games have averaged 5.1 goals — and eight of 11 have hit the under.

The 11 power plays Florida has allowed through two Stanley Cup Final games is its most in a two-game stretch during the postseason. Now that this series is back on the East Coast, we expect the Panthers to tighten things up.

Key stat: In their lone head-to-head matchup in Florida this year, the Panthers and Golden Knights combined for just three goals (a 2-1 win for Florida).

Quick pick

Golden Knights moneyline (+100): Even money to back a team with a +8 goal differential in the SCF? We’ll take it.

Vegas is up 2-0 in this series and has won six of eight road games in the playoffs. That’s a nice continuation from the regular season, when the Golden Knights went 26-7-8 as visitors (the third-best mark in the NHL).

If you’re skeptical about this pick due to Florida’s puck possession dominance — 55.3% Corsi so far, per Natural Stat Trick — consider this: Vegas has had more high-danger chances than Florida (34-30).