Super Bowl first TD odds, analysis and best bets
Predicting which player will score the Super Bowl’s first touchdown is one of the toughest betting markets to crack because it can be so dependent on the randomness of the coin toss. NFL teams that win the coin toss now defer possession to the second half nearly all of the time: Of the 272 coin-toss winners during the regular season, only 32 elected to receive the ball first, according to TruMedia. Both Super Bowl teams — the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers — followed this path; neither elected to receive after 15 combined coin-toss wins during the regular season.
In other words, the team that loses the coin toss on Super Bowl Sunday is likely to get the ball first and thus have the first shot at scoring the first touchdown.
In terms of first-drive scoring stats, the 49ers have scored a touchdown on 10 of 19 first drives this season (including the playoffs). But five of those first-drive touchdowns came over the season’s first six weeks. San Francisco has scored a first-drive touchdown in only one of its previous five games heading into the Super Bowl, and that was in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Los Angeles Rams, when both teams were resting starters in anticipation of the playoffs.
The 49ers’ defense has allowed a first-drive touchdown in only five of 19 games, but three of them came in their most recent six games (although one was in that meaningless Week 18 game against the Rams).
The Chiefs have scored a first-drive touchdown in only five of 20 games, but three have come in their past five games. Kansas City allowed a first-drive touchdown in only three of 20 games, the last coming in Week 13 against the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs’ defense also scored the game’s first touchdown on a fumble recovery in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The 49ers scored the first touchdown 13 times this season, with the Chiefs right behind them at 12 times. Only the Baltimore Ravens scored more first touchdowns than the Super Bowl teams during the regular season.
Here’s a look at the players with the best odds to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl LVIII. Odds were taken via DraftKings on Thursday afternoon; always shop for the best odds for any prop bet.
